(Agence Ecofin) – Last year in Dubai, during COP28, countries around the world committed to tripling renewable energy capacities by 2030. A strong commitment based on the evolution of costs of implementing renewable energy projects.
According to “Renewables 2024”, the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which provides forecasts for the deployment of renewable energy technologies, global renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by 2.7 times. by 2030, thus exceeding countries’ current ambitions by almost 25%.
The report states that in almost 140 countries, climate and energy security policies have played a crucial role in making renewable energy cost competitive with fossil fuel power plants. This commitment helps unlock new demand from the private sector and households, while industrial policies that encourage local manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines favor domestic markets.
However, it must be emphasized that these measures are not sufficient to achieve the more or less realistic objective of tripling the world’s renewable energy production capacity, set by nearly 200 countries together at the COP28 climate summit in 2023.
In terms of capacity, given existing policies and market conditions, the IEA’s main scenario projects that 5,500 GW of new renewable capacity will become operational by 2030. This means that global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase each year, reaching almost 940 GW per year by 2030, or 70% more than the record level reached last year (2030).
In this scenario, solar PV and wind power will together account for 95% of total growth in renewable capacity through the end of this decade, due to their growing economic appeal in almost all countries.
Finally, the IEA projects that 69 of the 150 countries analyzed meet or exceed their current policy targets for renewable capacity. These countries now hold nearly 80% of the world’s cumulative capacity. China largely dominates, although several other Western countries in particular are on the right track.
On the other hand, countries in the MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa region are not able to achieve their announced ambitions, as significant implementation problems still persist.
Abdullah Diop
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