Michel Barnier is perhaps not who we think. Behind the image he wishes to give himself, that of a right-wing leader ready to courageously cut state spending to save the country, the first budgetary framework completed by the new prime minister and consulted by The World draw another profile. The man of rigor should also be the man of a spectacular increase in taxation. According to this document, tax increases will represent more than 60% of the financial consolidation effort planned for 2025 compared to 2024.
Read the analysis | Article reserved for our subscribers Budget: the government promises 40 billion savings from 2025
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A austerity plan of 60 billion euros in one year, including 40 billion in reduced spending and 20 billion in additional taxes. These three figures, massive, impressive, are at the heart of Mr. Barnier’s communication in the run-up to the 2025 budget, which must be presented on October 10. The Prime Minister repeated it, Thursday October 3, on France 2: “In the effort we are going to make to reduce the debt, 60 billion, there will be a two-thirds reduction in public spending. And it’s going to be very hard. »
Friday, he further dramatized the issue to justify the “difficult decisions” future : “This braking is essential, otherwise we are heading straight towards a financial crisis”, he said during a trip to Cournon-sur-Auvergne (Puy-de-Dôme).
“Do well with little”
These three key figures correspond to as many political messages. One, the unprecedented scale of the« effort » announced is commensurate with the deficit which the new government inherits, a situation “extremely serious” of which Mr. Barnier says he was ” surprised “. Two, as a man attached to budgetary seriousness, the new host of Matignon intends to devote most of his energy to finally tackling public spending, to “do well with little”, following the teaching of Charles de Gaulle cited in his general policy speech, even “better with less”, as he said in Auvergne. Three, it is only on a subsidiary basis, “exceptional and temporary”, that he resolves to increase certain taxes. The future increases are in no way a « choc fiscal », he assured on France 2.
To arrive at these imposing 60 billion euros, Mr. Barnier reasons by comparing two scenarios. On the one hand, what would happen in 2025 if no measures were taken to redress the course: the public deficit could then rise to 7% of gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, what the government is targeting is a deficit of 5% of GDP maximum. Moving from the “trend scenario” of 7% to the objective of 5% would require an effort of 2 points of GDP, or around 60 billion euros.
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