With retirees, Michel Barnier puts the (little) finger on a taboo in the French political class

POLITICS – Where is the money? Did they eat the loot? Due to the budgetary crisis, the Prime Minister confirmed, Thursday October 3, on France 2, that his government was going to request a “ effort » to public services, wealthy companies, and the wealthiest households. But also to retirees.

Concretely, Michel Barnier proposes to postpone until July 1 the indexation of retirement pensions to inflation. The goal: to save several billion euros (the last mechanical increase would have cost around 15 billion) and thus contribute to catching up with the deficit, as well as to the recovery of public finances.

« I know it’s difficult. I ask everyone to make an effort, it will be fair and proportionate”thus confirmed the tenant of Matignon, committing “ Of course » that this revaluation « due » takes place next summer. Because Michel Barnier knows it, with this measure, he is attacking a real taboo in the political class.

Measure ” petty » for Le Pen, “ unfair » for the left

Some tried and they had problems, to use one of Emmanuel Macron’s favorite expressions. The President of the Republic knows this well since he is the last to have looked at the wallets of our elders, at the very beginning of his first mandate. The Head of State had actually decided to increase the Generalized Social Contribution (CSG), for some of them, in 2017, before dragging this measure out like a burden for many years. During the yellow vest movement, in particular.

In fact, no one in the political class plans, in their programs or their proposals to the Assembly, to involve retired French people. The reactions to the Prime Minister’s announcements clearly demonstrate this particular precaution. This Friday, Marine Le Pen (RN) denounces a measure “ petty ” Who “ amounts to stealing billions of euros of purchasing power from our elders. » The day before, Manuel Bompard (LFI) and Olivier Faure (PS) criticized, on the set of France 2, a proposal “ unfair », when Éric Ciotti spoke of a “ error. »

However, asking retirees to make an effort is not incongruous in the current context, according to many economists and specialists. First, several indicators show that seniors (as a whole) do not constitute the most precarious population segment in France. Far from it.

French retirees, an exception

Their pension is actually regularly revalued based on inflation (4 times over the last two years), which is not the case for salaries. They therefore have, on average, a standard of living and savings higher than those in the workforce, and are under-represented among the French under the sole category of poverty. All of this data is quite unique in Europe, where only Italy does better.

Then, as a corollary of this particular attention, pensions represent a massive share of public spending each year, around 25% (14.4% of GDP compared to 11.9 in Europe). By 2027, the indexation of pensions to inflation alone would cost the State nearly 30 billion euros. A significant figure, at a time when the Prime Minister is looking for 60 billion savings (for this year alone.)

So how can we explain the outcry in the political sphere? Basically, it is clear that the measure decided by Michel Barnier will affect all retirees, from the most precarious to the most well-off. Instead, we could have imagined a fairer mechanism, making it possible to save small pensions and target high pensions, particularly those of “ baby boomers », who were able to benefit from particularly favorable conditions when stopping working.

In form, attacking the elderly always has a cost… Political this time. For several years, the electoral weight of those over 65, who vote more than other age groups, has been increasing. In the last legislative elections, 75% of them went to the polls, compared to around 60% for the rest of the population. In addition, the RN’s breakthrough in the European and legislative elections can also be explained by its progress among seniors, an electorate which was until then impervious to it. Difficult, in this context, for any political group to engage head-on on such questions. And we better understand the eagerness of Marine Le Pen, despite being so severe (in theory) on public accounts, to come out of the woods. Michel Barnier has already indicated that he will not be a candidate in the next presidential election. Free hands to lift the taboo.

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