Office buildings in the La Défense business district of Paris
couple Pauline Foret
The main European stock markets are expected to look for direction at the opening on Friday in a context of caution, investors being on the one hand concerned by the risk of an escalation in the Middle East and, on the other, in the awaiting the publication of several economic indicators later in the day.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 could gain 0.18% at opening.
Futures contracts, on the other hand, signal a slight upward opening for the Dax in Frankfurt, which could gain 0.17%, and a stable opening for the FTSE in London, down very slightly by 0.01%. The Stoxx 600 is expected to fall by 0.9%.
After the publication on Thursday of weekly data on employment in the United States considered encouraging, the markets are now awaiting the monthly report, which will be published around 12:30 GMT and will allow investors to refine their estimates as to the possibility that the Federal Reserve lowers its key rates again.
In Europe, investors will be able to digest the figures for industrial production in France.
Markets are cautious as President Joe Biden indicates that Iran’s oil infrastructure could be a target as part of the announced response by Israel and the United States to the Iranian attack Tuesday.
On the other hand, on the good news side, in the United States, dockworkers and port operators reached an agreement in principle immediately ending the strike which interrupted maritime transport from the Gulf Coast and the East Coast for three days, both sides said Thursday.
It remains to be seen what this strike and the fallout from Hurricane Helene, which claimed more than 160 lives and wreaked destruction across the Southeast and Midwest of the United States, leaving more than 1.7 million of homes without electricity for several days, will have an impact on the health of the American labor market in the weeks and months to come.
“Oil prices are rising and the port strike could turn everything upside down,” commented Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Thursday, with investors having their eyes fixed on the Middle East and being cautious while awaiting the publication of new data on the health of the American labor market.
The Dow Jones index lost 0.44%, or 184.93 points, to 42,011.59 points.
The broader S&P-500 lost 9.58 points, or 0.17%, to 5,699.96 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 6.65 points (0.04%) to 17,918.48 points.
Following the trajectory of oil prices, which surged amid concerns over the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the S&P-500 energy sector ended up 1.6%.
IN ASIA
Asian stocks advance on Friday, Chinese stock markets continue to benefit from announcements made by China on the taking of measures aimed at stimulating its economy despite the caution of other world markets.
In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 8.06% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations advanced by 8.48%.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange advanced by 2.18%.
RATE
After climbing sharply on Thursday with data considered reassuring on the American job market, the yield on Treasuries fell somewhat on Friday awaiting the publication of the monthly employment report which will be published later in the day.
The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell 0.6 basis points (bp) to 3.8438%, compared to 1.2 bp to 3.7019% for the two-year.
The yield on the ten-year German Bund, the benchmark for the euro zone, rose by 1.2 bp to 2.1490%, compared to an increase of 2.7 bp for the two-year.
CHANGES
The dollar retreats slightly after reaching record highs earlier this morning, driven by data on the US jobs market and investors’ concerns about the risk of an escalation in the Middle East, which pushes them to turn towards “safe haven” values.
The dollar lost 0.11% against a basket of reference currencies.
The euro is stable, losing 0.02% to 1.1029 dollars.
OIL
Oil prices fell slightly Friday morning after jumping earlier in the morning as Joe Biden indicated that Iran’s oil infrastructure could be a target as part of the US and Israel’s response to the attack on Iran. Tehran on Tuesday. In 2019, Iran responded to attacks on its oil infrastructure by targeting that of Saudi Arabia.
The barrel of Brent fell by 0.15% and that of American light crude oil (WTI) lost 0.14%.
VALUES TO FOLLOW: [L8N3LF1AL]
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR OCTOBER 4:
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
FR 07:45 Industrial production August 0.2% -0.5%
US 12:30 p.m. Monthly employment report September 4.2% 4.2%
(Written by Pauline Foret, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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