The choice was prudent. According to constitutionalist Benjamin Morel, guest of Public Sénat, by appointing Michel Barnier, Emmanuel Macron retains a certain “capacity to act”, but also a “political continuity”.
“A Bernard Cazeneuve would have, for reasons of majority composition, imposed a line which was not [celle d’Emmanuel Macron] on fundamental issues,” he explains. A personality like Michel Barnier would be more open to collaboration with the executive according to the constitutionalist: “A priori, he agrees to a modus vivendi giving the President of the Republic some leeway in certain reserved areas, perhaps a little more.” But it is above all their ideological proximity that represents a great advantage: “What separates Michel Barnier ideologically from Emmanuel Macron on the major issues that are significant for Emmanuel Macron, notably the economy, is ultimately not much.”
The end of “Jupiterism”
From Emmanuel Macron’s point of view, with Michel Barnier, “you have political continuity, he is not someone who is settling the balance sheet of Macronism,” says Benjamin Morel. He goes further: “He is not someone who says precisely ‘Macronism in itself was a parenthesis, now I am closing this parenthesis and I am leading a new policy’.” A choice in continuity, which is intended to be a marker of stability, to the extent that it was ratified by the political forces that would form a coalition for the observer of political life: “And what’s more, there were 5 personalities who did not veto: François Bayrou, Edouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Gabriel Attal and Marine Le Pen… Which allows for stability today.” A very relative stability, as he immediately qualifies, to the extent that these political leaders all have their eyes on the Elysée.
If this choice is a marker of continuity, it is paradoxically the sign of the “end of Jupiterism” according to Benjamin Morel. “The real boss of a government in a parliamentary regime, and we are a parliamentary regime, is the National Assembly,” begins the academic, where the Prime Minister and the President will be constantly under the threat of a motion of censure. “The imperial presidency that says “I want” and the Parliament that says “Yes, Mr. President”, that’s over. And perhaps for a long time: because in the parliamentary configuration that we are in the process of finding, we may not have an absolute and plethoric majority again in a year or three years.”
The “post-Macron” era has begun
However, Benjamin Morel sees two paths for the Elysée/Matignon couple, “once the government is appointed”, because Michel Barnier needs Emmanuel Macron’s approval to form his team. “We could have a game, for the moment unpredictable, between either an Assembly-Barnier alliance, or a good understanding with the President of the Republic”. The new Prime Minister could thus rely on the National Assembly “with a Gabriel Attal who would like to settle the record of Macronism and say “we are turning the page and therefore in doing so, we support Barnier against the Elysée”, predicts Benjamin Morel.
This is the sign for the constitutionalist of the entry into the “post-Macron” period in the National Assembly: “Emmanuel Macron cannot represent the future for these deputies, because he cannot represent himself. The future, what is it called for these deputies? It is called Bayrou, Philippe, Wauquiez, whoever you want, but not Macron. The majority was already made up of chapels before the dissolution, now the race is on.” While Edouard Philippe has just announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, the war of succession has only just begun.
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