A first since 2018. Mobilians, with the research company TCG Conseil, has just published its new prospective study on automobile after-sales by 2030. This perspective highlights the growth, electrification and aging of the vehicle fleet, the increase in repair prices, and a drastic reduction in the number of car dealerships of 13% by 2030 across the entire French territory, while the number of vehicles in circulation was expected to increase by more than 6% and go from 45 million to 48 million units on the road.
The study also points to a continued aging of the vehicle fleet, with a sharp increase in vehicles in circulation aged 12 years. Finally, if electrification seems absolutely certain, doubts remain as to its proportion. So many elements that will shake up the after-sales sector and the motorist’s wallet.
Curtain on the network?
In the coming years, the brand network will see a drop in the number of dealerships of around 13%. The backlash from manufacturer policies which, to lower distribution costs, rely on a concentration of their concessions. According to Marc Bruschet, President of the Mobilians VP Dealers business, “brands will lose some of their customers”. Dealers are expected to lose ground in the repair and maintenance market (-2.4% in volume and -3.6% in value). Even if the electrification of the fleet is more favorable to them (the owners frequent the concessions more), the geographic scarcity of the network will benefit independents united in multi-brand networks in bodywork mechanics very present throughout the territory.
The electric winner?
The study also makes the connection between the increase in electric car sales and the drop in the number of repair and maintenance operations per vehicle. She notes that a BEV generates less after-sales revenue than a thermal one. Under maintenance” the average basket is 50% lower “ admits Marc Bruschet. What users confirm. For 76% of them, after-sales service costs for electric models are lower than those for thermal models. On the other hand, BEV owners visit their dealership more often. They still need to build long-term user loyalty and target the right areas of profitability. Starting with the tires. Knowing that electric vehicles wear out rubber more (+20%) than thermal ones, “the tire will be the first reason for visiting the workshop” we emphasize at Mobilians. But for the moment, dealers are performing poorly in this area. To remedy this, manufacturers could include tires in maintenance contracts.
Finally, it should be noted that the additional cost per operation, compared to thermal, would be 25%, particularly in the event of a collision or the need to change the battery. A source of optimism for distributors. And so optimize a profitable position. We still need to know precisely the rate of BEV in circulation in 2030.
Fewer operations, but more expensive
Regarding purchase intention, only 11% of motorists say they are ready to opt for an electric vehicle. 51% refuse this option and 38% declare themselves “undecided”. Facing “a greening capacity of the park which is uncertain to say the least” Mobilians therefore studied two scenarios.
The first considers a penetration rate (Share in new registrations) of BEVs in the market at 75% (i.e. 20% of the fleet in 2031). In this case, the market value after sale would remain relatively stable (-0.7%). The average price per operation would be oriented upwards, with an average cost per intervention estimated at €389 (€384 in 2022). The tire item makes it possible to compensate for the reduction in maintenance.
In the second scenario, Mobilians considers a BEV penetration rate in the national fleet limited to 50% (i.e. 15% of the fleet in 2031). In this scenario, the value of the repair and maintenance market would increase by 1.6% compared to 2022. As for the average price per operation, it would amount to €392. A progression which can be explained by the aging of the fleet and the proportion of thermal vehicles still on the roads.
Ultimately, the market should decline in volume but remain stable in value. With the extension of warranties to 8 years (on condition of network maintenance), manufacturers have leverage to attract customers. Finally, to compensate for the additional technicality of interventions on increasingly technological vehicles (ADAS), the hourly cost of interventions risks certain inflation. Bad news for the motorist’s wallet.
Related News :