finding new sources of energy savings would be necessary

What will be the volume of obligations that will be set by the State on energy suppliers for the next period of energy savings certificates (EEC), which will begin in 2026? Everyone makes their own calculations. With the idea of ​​quantifying potential savings sources and also of estimating the main sectors and work operations to be exploited to achieve European energy efficiency objectives by 2030.

A study by the Colombus Consulting firm, commissioned by several professional federations in the energy sector (1) and another study carried out by the Group of CEE professionals (GPCEE) lent themselves to this delicate exercise. Their results were respectively revealed on September 24 and 25, 2024, in order to anticipate the sixth period (P6), scheduled between 2026 and 2030.

During a consultation carried out during the summer of 2023, the Ministry of Ecological Transition proposed a level of annual obligation for P6 twice as high as during the current fifth period. The ambition could thus rise to 1,600 discounted cumulative terawatt hours (TWh cumac) per year, or 8,000 TWh cumac in total over five years. Another range of annual EEC obligations was also proposed, set at 1,250 and 2,500 TWh cumac per year.

Goals “out of reach” for Columbus

To assess the impact of the levels of obligation put on the table, the Colombus study (2) looked at the CEE deposits accessible from a technical and economic point of view. « We had to look at what deposits were available, those already consumed, the cost of EWCs for consumers, the economic conditions for achieving the objectives, but also the obstacles to operations, often other than purely economic.” explains Nicolas Goldberg, partner at Colombus Consulting.

The firm analyzed the panel of the fifty most used standardized operation sheets, out of the 230 in the catalog of the Technical Association for Energy and Environment (ATEE). Please note: only consolidated data at the end of 2021 are taken into account. The study therefore concerns the remaining deposit from the fifth period.

These 50 files would thus represent a remaining technical deposit of 8,062 updated cumulative terawatt-hours (TWh cumac). The residential and tertiary sectors are the most represented (33 operations studied) and between them consolidate 90% of the remaining deposit. Colombus also extrapolated these results to take into account the weight of other standardized operations as well as specific operations. Across all CEEs, the remaining technical deposit would be around 10,200 TWh cumac, but of which only around 3,400 TWhc, or a third, would be economically accessible (excluding CEE programs and bonuses).

“Only 3,337 TWhc are economically accessible at the end of 2021. The lowest scenario of the P6 consultation proposes a target of 6,250 TWh (with an obligation of 1,250 TWhc/year from 2026), while deposits will have been consumed in the meantime. Which already demonstrates the inaccessibility of the P6 scenarios put out for consultation, given the current means of the CEE system”, pins the study.

As for the highest trajectory (2,500 TWh cumac per year), it would exceed the total available technical resources by 51% (excluding programs and bonuses) “ et cannot therefore be considered as a viable scenario as it stands. », observes Nicolas Goldberg. Finally, the proposed 1,600 TWhc/year would, according to him, require major economic aid or a massive opening of new fields.

According to Colombus, the economically accessible deposit would therefore not be sufficient to reach the levels of obligations proposed by the public authorities, excluding programs and subsidies. The cabinet therefore judges “ necessary to release deposits, either by reducing the remainder payable by the beneficiary, or by unlocking new economically accessible deposits not previously exploited.”

Quid the impact on household bills?

Furthermore, increasing the level of CEE obligation each period implies an increase in the costs of the system for those obliged, which are reflected in fine on household energy bills. A system which already represents a cost of 164 euros per year per household, notably criticized, last week, the Court of Auditors in its report and which calls for reform of the EEC system. Gold, “if the scenarios proposed by the public authorities are retained, the annual cost of CEE for a French household could be 450 to 912 euros for a CEE price of 11 €/MWhc », Estimates Columbus.

Maintaining an ambitious goal is possible according to the GPCEE

For her part, Florence Lievyn, president of the Group of CEE professionals (GPCEE), maintains that it is possible to “ maintain the ambition and coverage of our community obligations with regard to the Energy Efficiency Directive, without blowing up the French bill! We must have a level of obligation that is consistent with the potential for energy savings to be addressed.”.

The GPCEE, which brings together 17 CEE delegates, therefore calls for ambitions not to be lowered for the sixth period and to retain as an objective an average annual obligation of at least 1,250 TWhc per year (compared to 850 TWhc currently). In addition to the Colombus analysis, the GPCEE study identifies a still unexploited energy savings potential which would be 946 TWhc by 2030. The new technical resources mainly concern the transport, industry and tertiary building, which are currently not covered by CEE sheets.

For example, “ the overall renovation of the tertiary sector is a source that would save 16 TWh per year in final energy”illustrates Sébastien Timsit, member of the GPCEE, general director of ACE Energie. Electric vehicles and even arc furnaces for industry are also among these new sources.

This potential for new technical deposits adds to the deposits identified in previous studies carried out by the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe). They would allow to achieve, by 2030, 71% of the effort to be made by the country in terms of reducing energy consumption”, estimates the GPCEE. On the other hand, this study does not prejudge their economic accessibility.

Article published on September 27, 2024