The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) anticipates a drop in regulated electricity sales prices of at least 10% on February 1, 2025.
After several increases, millions of electricity subscribers will be able to breathe: the energy regulator has decided to postpone the revaluation of one of the components of the bill of the majority of customers until February, at a time when electricity prices are expected to fall sharply. The increase in the “network tariff”, linked to transmission costs, will only be applied from February 1st.
This increase, which represents a 1% increase in the bill for subscribers to the “EDF blue tariff” (regulated tariff), will then be absorbed by the expected fall in electricity prices. Ultimately, the households concerned could benefit from a reduction in their bill of “at least 10%”, indicated the Energy Regulation Commission (CRE) in a deliberation on Wednesday.
Prices increase by 43% in two years
The increase, linked to a 4.8% revaluation of the “network tariff” (TURPE), was initially planned for August 1. But the resigning government had decided not to apply it, a way of avoiding a “yo-yo” of prices incomprehensible to consumers, Bercy justified in mid-July, avoiding a new controversy in the midst of a political crisis.
Energy prices, at their highest in 2021-2022 due to the post-Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine, have indeed largely stirred up the debates of the European and legislative elections. Over two years, electricity prices have jumped by more than 43% despite the tariff shield put in place by the State.
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The government had therefore asked the CRE to take a new decision that takes better account of its stability recommendations. This maintains the “annual update” of the TURPE (tariff for the use of public electricity networks), one of the three building blocks of the bill alongside the cost of the electricity itself and taxes, for entry into force on 1 November.
But, “with the aim of price stability and readability”, for households and VSEs with regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRVE) – i.e. 22.4 million meters – the CRE proposes to postpone this increase in the TURPE until February 1, the usual TRVE revision date. The aim of the postponement? To make the increase painless, thanks to the decline in electricity prices which are included in the calculation of the bill.
Market prices around 60-70 euros per MWh
Even if they have not yet returned to their pre-crisis level (40/50 euros per megawatt hour), these market prices are now stabilizing at around 60-70 euros per MWh, far from the peaks of 2022, explains the CRE. The CRE thus anticipates “in the current market and tax conditions a decrease of at least 10% of the TRVE in February 2025”, a first since the start of the energy crisis. This decrease would therefore include the increase in the TURPE and the increase in the excise duty on electricity, a tax that the outgoing government has promised to reinstate as much as possible in order to definitively exit the costly tariff shield.
“The electricity bill of each French person will drop by 10 to 15% in February 2025,” assured Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire in June.
Concretely, from February, for an average household with an annual bill of 2,000 euros, the savings are estimated at at least 200 euros per year, a breath of fresh air which is added to the fall in fuel prices.
The CRE recommended a 4.8% increase in the “network tariff” in August
The fact remains that the increase in the TURPE will indeed be applicable on November 1st for the 17.5 million households and businesses with market offers (indexed to the markets). In theory, because operators can also decide not to pass it on. “It is not excluded that very few will do so,” indicates the CRE. These suppliers already offer offers that are much lower than the TRVE, by around 20%.
In its deliberation of June 26, the CRE recommended increasing the “network tariff” by 4.8%, reviewed each year in August, to take into account the increase in transmission costs of the distribution manager Enedis, a sort of toll paid by suppliers and passed on to individuals and professionals. A “necessary” update, repeats the CRE, while France will have to use more electricity to move away from fossil fuels.
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