Bitcoin has faced significant headwinds recently, with macroeconomic uncertainty impacting both cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
According to a report from K33 Research, the perpetual swaps market has experienced persistent bearish sentiment, leading to negative funding rates. Analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman noted that these rates have reached their lowest levels since March 2023, signaling a potential market bottom.
The report highlights that negative 30-day average funding rates have occurred only seven times since 2018, and in the past, these instances have often preceded price recoveries.
Historical data suggests that following such negative funding rates, Bitcoin has seen average 90-day returns of 79%, with median returns at 55%.
As Bitcoin struggles, currently priced at $56,718, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has hit a 23-month high of 0.67.
This correlation indicates that upcoming macroeconomic indicators, such as Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 18, could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
In addition to the negative funding rates, there has been a notable increase in open interest in the perpetual swaps market, reaching levels not seen since late July. This dynamic may expose the market to potential short squeezes in the near future.
The report also pointed to a substantial outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, totaling $750 million—the largest since May—which may indicate significant accumulation by long-term holders.
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin remains up 34.2% year-to-date, although it has seen a 1% decline over the past 24 hours and a 3% drop in the last month.
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