Global stock markets were mostly up on Tuesday, after their first steps in the red, focused on American politics ahead of the televised debate between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, while waiting for an inflation indicator in the United States on Wednesday. At around 07:25 GMT, Paris was up 0.31%, Frankfurt was back in balance (+0.02%) and Milan was up 0.18%.
Only London fell by 0.47%. “British investors, who are heavily invested in mining and commodities stocks, are not reassured by the selling pressure on these two sectors, weighed down by the slowdown in China and concerns about weakening global growth.”explains Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank.
In Asia, Hong Kong advanced by 0.41% in the latest trading, Shanghai gained 0.28% and Shenzhen 0.13%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange, on the other hand, fell slightly (-0.16%).
The key role of American politics
“The market’s attention will turn to American politics, as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris”the two candidates for the American presidential election, “will face off in a debate”points out Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank. The Democratic vice president and the Republican candidate have never spoken to each other before and this debate is the first, and perhaps the last, before the November 5 election.
“A Trump victory would benefit big oil, small domestic businesses and cryptocurrencies”and a victory for Kamala Harris “would support businesses deemed more sustainable, the health sector, infrastructure and technology, as it focuses on sustainable and inclusive growth”explains Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
On the publications side, an inflation indicator (CPI) in the United States will be analyzed on Tuesday by the market, which expects a publication that is not “likely to change expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US central bank next week”the analyst wrote in a note.
These price and production indicators will allow investors “to obtain further information on inflation trends and clues about the next steps of the American central bank” (Fed), explains John Plassard, investment specialist for Mirabaud.
“While everyone is focusing on the future decision of the American monetary institution, we must not forget that it is the European Central Bank (ECB) which will meet first on Thursday”the specialist points out. The monetary institution of the Old Continent should lower its rates by 0.25 percentage points, according to economists’ forecasts.
Siemens and Volswegen
Industrialist Siemens (+0.29% in Frankfurt) will build its first express train factory in the United States for around 60 million dollars, the Bavarian group announced on Monday evening.
Within the Volkswagen group (-1.35%), the flagship VW brand, in the midst of a crisis, is changing its financial director, with the arrival of David Powels, who comes from the subsidiary Seat, according to an announcement on Monday. The manufacturer of the Golf would do well to apply a “horse remedy” in Germany, where there is talk of closing factories and laying off staff, former Porsche boss and VW supervisory board member Wendelin Wiedeking told the popular daily Bild on Tuesday. The rest of the automotive sector is down on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: Porsche AG (-0.99%), BMW (-1.13%) and Mercedes-Benz (-0.77%).
Oil in decline
The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude fell by 0.51% to $71.48 and the price of a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 0.63% to $68.28. The greenback was rather stable (-0.07%) against the single currency, at $1.1043 to the euro, and rose by 0.14% against the yen to 143.38 yen to the dollar. Bitcoin fell by 0.29% to $56.854.
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