Real estate in the starting blocks to get going again? It was already there at the beginning of June before the dissolution, announced by Emmanuel Macron on Sunday June 9, the evening of the European elections, put a severe brake on the market.The year 2024 marks the end of three consecutive years of declining volumes. The worst is behind us“, says Thomas Lefebvre, vice-president of data at Se Loger and Meilleurs Agents. On the price side, the decline continues but has shown signs of slowing down over the last 12 months. Real estate prices in France reached their highest annual rate of decline in April, with -3% across the country, and showed a decline of 1.3% on September 1, according to the real estate valuation site. “In Paris, the drop in prices (-14% over the last five years) has increased real estate purchasing power to a level higher than that of September 2019, when credit rates were three times lower.s (1,2%)», constate Thomas Lefebvre.
900,000 sales in 2025?
And in 2025? Change of scenery! The real estate appraisal site expects prices to recover. This would be unprecedented since 2022! Several lights are green: incomes are increasing, and more than inflation which continues to slow down while credit rates at worst are currently stabilizing and could fall below 3.5% (excluding insurance) by the end of the year. The perfect ingredients to revive demand – whose purchasing power is regaining color – and therefore real estate prices. Add to that an offer that “has stabilized after three years of increases“, according to Thomas Lefebvre. And you get the signs of an encouraging recovery. But there remains one uncertainty and not the least: the political crisis. Will the new government’s roadmap reassure the markets? This is why Se Loger/Meilleurs Agents is counting on a small increase of 2% in 2025 for France.
In terms of volumes, the forecasts for next year are just as positive: after 771,000 sales anticipated for 2024 – a low since 2016 – the real estate valuation site anticipates a rebound to 900,000 transactions in 2025. An encouraging rebound but which is more of a catch-up, after the 36% tumble since the peak (1.2 million sales) in August 2021.100,000 sales still missing (compared to the 900,000 planned for 2025) to return to normal rhythm in light of France’s demographic growth“, underlines Thomas Lefebvre.
