China’s population declines for third consecutive year

China announced on Friday that its population had declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, confirming a downward trend after more than six decades of growth, in a context of rapid population aging. The Asian giant ceded its place as the most populous country in the world to India in 2023. It actively seeks to boost the birth rate through subsidies and communication campaigns.

China had 1.408 billion people at the end of 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, up from 1.410 billion a year earlier. The decline was, however, less pronounced than in 2023, when the decline doubled in one year.

China in 2016 ended its one-child policy imposed since the early 1980s due to fears of overpopulation. Since 2021, it has allowed all couples to have three children. But those measures have failed to reverse population decline in a country where a vast, cheap labor force has long served as an engine of economic growth.

This decline in the population will probably continue due to “gloomy economic prospects” for young people and while women “experience stubborn gender discrimination in the labor market,” Yun Zhou, sociologist at the AFP, told AFP. University of Michigan.

People aged over 60 will make up nearly a third of China’s population by 2035, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit research group. This segment of the population already numbers 310.3 million people, almost a quarter of the national population and up compared to last year.

The Chinese birth rate – one of the lowest in the world – however rebounded slightly compared to last year, rising to 6.77 per 1,000 inhabitants, according to NBS statistics. “This rebound is unlikely to last, as the number of women of childbearing age is expected to decline significantly over the coming decades,” says Zhao Litao, a researcher at the East Asia Institute of Technology. National University of Singapore.

“In the long term, the combined trends of falling births, contraction of the total population and rapid aging remain unchanged,” he emphasizes.

This increase in the birth rate is nevertheless rather linked to a postponement of birth plans interrupted during the pandemic or to an increase in births during the year of the Dragon, popular with parents, according to He Yafu, independent expert specializing in demography . “The general trend of population decline will not change,” he assures AFP. “Unless strong measures are implemented to encourage the birth rate (…), the share of elderly people in the population will continue to increase,” he adds.

In September, the authorities announced the gradual increase in the legal retirement age, which had not been raised for decades and is among the lowest in the world. With a growing proportion of elderly people and a shrinking working population, the country faces increased pressure on the pension and health systems.

This demographic imbalance could also weigh on domestic consumption, since retirees tend to spend less than workers. From 2025, the legal retirement age for men will gradually be increased to 63, compared to the current 60. For women, it will increase from 50 to 55 years, or from 55 to 58 years, depending on the type of work carried out.