We told you about it in October and it is now a done deal: Ukraine has cut off the Russian gas tap to Europe. The Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod gas pipeline, which transported methane extracted in Siberia through Ukraine and Slovakia, to the Czech Republic and Austria, stopped operating on December 31, 2024. Enough to seriously undermine Gazprom, Michael deciphers Bradshaw and Steve Pye, respectively professor of global energy at the University of Warwick, located in Coventry (central-west England), and professor of energy systems at University College London (UCL), for the online media The Conversation.
“So far, the European Union (EU) has not yet imposed sanctions on Russian gas imports, but it has sanctioned the Arctic LNG 2 project and associated shippingwrite the two British researchers. And it banned the reloading of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in EU ports. The rapid reduction in pipeline exports to Europe is the result of Russian actions, such as the insistence on payment in rubles, as well as the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.”
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With other British colleagues, Michael Bradshaw and Steve Pye published a study on January 4 in the journal Nature Communications, which looks at two possible future geopolitical scenarios concerning these Russian gas exports. The first scenario is called “limited outlets” («limited markets»). The European Union would end imports of Russian gas by 2027 and other outlets would be hampered by sanctions on Russian LNG, as well as the lack of construction of gas pipelines.
This is what would happen if Moscow and Beijing did not find an agreement to build Power of Siberia 2 (or “Force de Sibérie” in French), the gas pipeline project which should transport 50 billion cubic meters per year of the Russia to China. If this is the case, then Russia would have to settle for the Siberian Force 1 gas pipeline managed by Gazprom (which is to supply 38 billion cubic meters per year from 2025) and a new gas pipeline from the Far East.
The second scenario is titled “pivot to Asia”. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agree on the Power of Siberia 2 project and Russia manages to accelerate the development of its exports in the form of liquefied natural gas. Russian gas would continue to arrive in Europe via the TurkStream pipeline (which connects Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea) and the EU would continue to authorize imports of Russian LNG, which more or less corresponds to the current situation.
-An uncertain future for Russian gas
“Overall, Russia will struggle to return to pre-crisis gas export levelsanalyze the British researchers. Compared to 2020, Russia's gas exports will have fallen by 31% to 47% by 2040, under the “limited outlets” scenario, and by 13% to 38% under the “limited outlets” strategy. pivot towards Asia. Increased demand from China will not significantly improve Russia's prospects. Crucially, any future pivot to Asia will depend on China’s energy security and climate change mitigation strategies.”
At the end of 2024, the stock price of the Russian gas operator Gazprom, controlled by the Russian state, collapsed to its lowest level in sixteen years. True, this is partly due to a huge loss of 629 billion rubles in 2023 (or around 6.4 billion euros) and the cancellation of dividend payments. But it also reflects the doubts of its investors regarding the company's ability to find new outlets for gas. made in Russia.
“Will the EU stand firm and abandon all Russian gas imports by 2027, or could the end of the war in Ukraine lead to a radical U-turn?ask Michael Bradshaw and Steve Pye. Will Russia be able to find new export routes and new markets for its enormous gas reserves?
Furthermore, if Russia exports more methane to China via gas pipelines, Beijing would have less need to import LNG, the global market for which has been under tension since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Which would allow for Europe to buy American LNG more easily. Enough to reconcile us with Donald Trump?
