Paris (awp/afp) – The risk of a rebound in American inflation weighs on the financial markets on Monday, in a context where investors are lowering their expectations of a reduction in interest rates from the American central bank (Fed ) in 2025.
Investors are faced with “a very strong change in anticipation of central bank policies,” explained Amélie Derambure, multi-asset manager at Amundi.
“A few weeks and months ago, the market anticipated three rate cuts by the American central bank (Fed) for 2025, driven by the idea that the disinflation movement would allow it,” she detailed.
But economic indicators “stronger than expected, the rise in oil prices and signals about inflation higher than expected lead the markets to expect only one drop in 2025”, noted the manager.
In this context, the stock markets are struggling on Monday. In Europe, the Paris Stock Exchange ended down 0.30%, Frankfurt dropped 0.41%, London 0.29% and Milan 0.83%. In Zurich, the SMI fell 0.76%.
In the United States, around 4:50 p.m. GMT, the Nasdaq index lost 1.32% and the S&P 500 lost 0.63%. Only the Dow Jones gained 0.18%.
The rise in oil prices adds additional pressure on the markets, which fear that it will fuel a possible rebound in inflation.
In reaction to the sanctions taken mainly against the Russian energy sector by the American and British governments on Friday, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea rose 1.91% to 81.28 dollars, around 4:50 p.m. GMT, and that of its American equivalent, WTI, jumped 3.10% to 78.94 dollars.
“The rise in oil prices is worse for Europe than the United States because we are an importer,” underlined Amélie Derambure.
“But it is also a thorn in the side of Donald Trump, who hopes in part to offset the increases in customs duties that he wants to put in place, with lower prices of raw materials to limit the impact” of his commercial policy “on the purchasing power of households”, she noted.
This increase is all the more worrying in an environment marked by “bond markets already under strong pressure”, she said.
The yield on ten-year US government bonds stood at 4.79% around 4:50 p.m. GMT, compared to 4.76% at Friday’s close.
In the United Kingdom, the yield on the 10-year bond reached 4.88%, against 4.84% on Friday, close to the highs reached last week, when it had recorded a record since 2008. The French equivalent was at 3.46% versus 3.43%.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar gained 0.27% against the euro, to 1.0217 dollars per euro, shortly after the single European currency fell to its weakest level since November 2022 against the greenback.
“The risks of hitting parity between the euro and the dollar in the coming days or weeks have clearly increased,” said the Amundi manager.
This week, investors will focus on the publication on Tuesday of the PPI producer price index for December in the United States – which measures inflation on the producer side – then on Wednesday, on the CPI index, which measures prices at American consumption.
Moderna unscrews in New York ___
Vaccine manufacturer Moderna plunged 20.47% after significantly lowering its sales forecasts for the year 2025.
“Moderna now forecasts a turnover of 1.5 to 2.5 billion dollars in 2025, mainly during the second half of the year,” the laboratory said in a press release, less than the 2.9 billion expected by the analysts.
Macy’s and Abercrombie in the red ___
The American department store chain Macy’s fell 7.26% in New York, after announcing that its fourth quarter turnover would be at the bottom of its target range, located between 7.8 and 8 billion dollars. , or even “slightly lower”.
The American ready-to-wear brand Abercrombie & Fitch fell by 18.79% after publishing annual sales forecasts for its 2024-2025 financial year that were lower than market expectations.
afp/rp
