Steam escapes from the cooling towers of the lignite power plant in Niederaussem, North Rhine-Westphalia.Image: DPA
According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, global demand for coal has never been higher than this year. And it doesn't seem ready to diminish.
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Coal is often described as an energy source of the past, but reality shows another picture. Over the past three decades, global coal consumption has doubled. In 2024, consumption even reached a record figure of 8.7 billion tonnes, which corresponds to an increase of more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020. According to experts, a plateau will be reached in the next three years , and by 2027 we will reach approximately 8.87 billion tonnes of global coal consumption.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the evolution of coal demand continues to present large differences between industrialized countries and emerging countries. While demand is falling this year by 12% in the EU and 5% in the United States, it increases by 1% in China and 5% in India.
Gas stagnates, coal progresses
According to the IEA, the main reason for the increase in coal power is the price of gaswhich increased sharply following the war in Ukraine. Thus, gas has stagnated as an energy source, while coal has increased at all levels: extraction, consumption, trade and electricity production.
Uneven development
As coal demand in Western economies continues to contract according to the IEA, this decline is expected to be more than offset by growth in countries like India, Indonesia and Vietnam. While Britain closed its last coal-fired power station in October after 140 years of existence, China, as a center of global production, represents 56% of demand.
Weather conditions, particularly in China, as well as the rate of increase in electricity demand also have an impact on actual coal consumption in the years to come. The uneven development of energy production also plays an important role.
While the West prides itself on reducing fossil fuels, countries that rely heavily on their export economies must compensate for the overall increase in energy consumption. Thus, according to a report from the Federal Office for the Environment from last year, 67% of Swiss emissions come from abroad. A global exit from coal-fired energy therefore remains a distant prospect.
