Although scientists repeat every year that there is an emergency, the year 2025 marks a real milestone in the fight against global warming. Countries having ratified the Paris Agreement, committing to reduce their carbon footprint, are in fact beginning a new five-year cycle, during which commitments must be strong enough to achieve the announced objective of maintaining the increase in global average temperature below 2°C.
Another milestone: to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 – the objective stated in the agreement – 2025 must mark a global peak in emissions. A symbolic year for the planet, therefore, from all points of view.
“The emergency is now, from today until 2030”
The challenge is real, since the commitments of the cycle which is ending are not really kept, estimates Jean Jouzel, paleoclimatologist and former vice-president of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). If France “don’t behave too badly”he admits that there is “late” on all commitments made at the global level.
Deliberately optimistic, he nevertheless wishes to remember the notable advances, which give hope for the future. Particularly for China, the most polluting country in the world in terms of quantity of CO2. “Some specialists believe that the Chinese plateau could be reached in 2025. We must hope that renewables, which are developing at a rapid pace, will take the place of fossil fuels fairly quickly. If China peaks next year and then comes back down, that would be great. »
It is still necessary, for all countries, to think about replacing energies and not simply adding them, believes the climatologist. “We are facing a massive development of all forms of renewables: solar, wind… But there is no this idea of sobriety. It’s not just about increasing renewables. If it only adds up, it's useless, it must replace fossil fuels. »
Concretely, if future efforts are not sufficient, and do not make up for the delay already accumulated, “we are practically heading towards 3°C by the end of the century”, calculates Jean Jouzel. Météo-France even speaks of an additional 4°C in 2100.
“The emergency is not tomorrow, it’s now, from today until 2030,” adds the expert, while some climatologists believe that not only will 2023 and 2024 be the hottest years in history on a planetary scale, but that they will also mark a change of pace: “global warming is accelerating”.
The trajectory currently adopted must therefore be reviewed, believes Célia Fontaine, one of the representatives of La Fresque du climat, an association to raise awareness of climate issues. “The problem is that we see great inequality between countries and there are many sectors to transform, whether in energy, industry, agriculture, transport, construction… And for the moment, the countries are not aligned at all”observe-t-elle.
Some well-established habits are hard to break. “We see, for example, that air traffic has not decreased. We thought that after Covid, we would move towards a new paradigm, but no, it's starting again with a vengeance. » Same for broadcasts “linked to methane, since meat consumption is not decreasing worldwide”she judges. Without forgetting the different pressures coming from the industrial and agricultural worlds, in France as elsewhere.
Avoid defeatism
In the United States, the election of Donald Trump does not reassure it, even though the newly elected president had, during his first term, left the Paris Agreement. Some fear a new withdrawal after his inauguration on January 20. On this point, Jean Jouzel nevertheless believes that “the machine is launched” in the United States. “And I think that this transition is irreversible. » If certain heads of state can slow it down, “in the United States, there was still a real effort made by Joe Biden with the Inflation Reduction Act”including in particular ecological reforms and a plan to support green industry. “Donald Trump can't break everything. »
Not falling into defeatism is also the posture defended by Célia Fontaine. “I am very careful about the story to be told on these issues. Because if we announce that it's ruined, how can we motivate people to make an effort? “, esteems the one who wishes to fight “to the last drop of oil”.
This does not prevent us from sounding the alarm and encouraging collective and individual efforts, in 2025, more than ever. “What the IPCC says, in the latest reports on which we rely at the Climate Fresco, is that it is still possible to change. » Awareness that still has a way to go. “The problem is that everyone passes the responsibility to each other”between the three blocks made up of citizens, businesses and politicians.
The risk, according to her? “To tell ourselves that it is not at our small level that we will have an impact. Whereas if everyone puts their own effort into it, it has one”adds the specialist. “It can help, through mimicry, to show that we can do things differently. The more of us change our habits, the more it will spread like wildfire. »
