Paris (awp/afp) – Political tremors, stock market records, cryptocurrencies and gold at the top… 2024 was a particularly turbulent year on the financial markets.
A five-point look at the events and upheavals that marked the year.
Records boursiers and cascade
In 2024, the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq have shattered their records on Wall Street, surpassing the milestones of 45,000, 6,000 and 20,000 points respectively.
“It was an exceptional year, enabled by the performance of tech stocks which benefit from artificial intelligence,” Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM, explains to AFP.
The price of chip giant Nvidia jumped more than 160%.
In Europe, records were achieved, but to a lesser extent. The Frankfurt Dax index, driven by its software giant SAP (+70%), still exceeded 20,000 points.
A very political year
On Wall Street, Donald Trump’s victory gave a boost to American indices, excited by the Republican’s promises of deregulation and tax cuts.
“The market considers that this will lead to more growth, for longer,” Pierre Bismuth, managing director and head of management at Myria AM, explains to AFP.
Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla group, a supporter of Donald Trump, have more than tripled since hitting a low in April.
In France, the dissolution of the National Assembly on the contrary pulled the rug out from under the CAC 40, which showed growth of 6% over the year before June… and has now fallen by more than 3%.
Signs of investor doubt: the gap between ten-year interest rates between France and Germany has widened, hovering around 0.80 points in December, compared to 0.50 points at the start of the year .
In 2025, investors will be attentive to the implementation of Donald Trump’s policy in terms of customs tariffs, and to the early elections in Germany in February.
Bitcoin, gold and commodities at the top
Benefiting from Trump’s promises of deregulation, bitcoin exceeded $100,000 in 2024 and climbed by more than 150%. Ethereum, the second strongest cryptocurrency, gained more than 50% over the year.
Gold has broken records, against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions which have increased its role as a safe haven.
Raw materials such as coffee and cocoa also reached peaks, boosted by poor weather conditions.
The year of the monetary rollercoaster
Major central banks have started cycles of rate cuts this year, after raising them to historically high levels to fight inflation.
The Swiss National Bank led the way in March, before the European Central Bank (ECB) in June, the Bank of England in August and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
Investors questioned the appropriate pace to adopt: not too fast to avoid reviving inflation, not too slowly to sufficiently support activity.
On August 5, weak employment figures in the United States raised fears of an imminent recession, causing a small “black Monday”, with declines of more than 3% on Wall Street.
For 2025, on the contrary, we emphasize “the resilience of the American economy and the resistance of inflation”, according to Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France.
The American Federal Reserve (Fed) warned on Wednesday that it would be “more cautious” for the future, causing another plunge of 2 to 3% in indices on Wall Street.
In the euro zone, where growth remains sluggish, investors are more optimistic about the prospects of rate cuts.
Big gap between US and Europe
The year 2024 saw the gap widen between American and European equities, with a “performance gap of 25%, unheard of”, according to Catherine Garrigues, manager at Allianz GI.
This reflects a “strong American economy, with significant growth and productivity gains,” explains Christopher Dembik.
On the contrary, the weak performance of the euro zone and the poor economic situation in China, a crucial partner, weighed down European stocks.
Hope for 2025: the recent “recovery measures announced in China” which “could finally support European markets”, believes Alexandre Baradez.
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