(Ecofin Agency) – Coal is criticized in favor of greener and renewable fuels, but its global consumption has doubled over the last 3 decades according to the IEA. Its demand fell in 2020 due to the Covid-19 crisis, but it has since recovered and is reaching record levels.
According to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) released this month titled “ Coal 2024 – Analysis and forecast to 2027 »demand and production of coal in the global market is expected to reach new all-time highs in 2024. The organization forecasts a 1% increase in demand to a record level of 8.77 billion tonnes, and expects this means that production exceeds the threshold of 9 billion tonnes for the first time.
According to details reviewed by Ecofin Agency, the increase in production should be driven by the 3 largest producers: China, India and Indonesia. Regarding demand, its expected growth in 2024 can be attributed to China and India. In China, the IEA expects a new record annual demand of 4.9 billion tonnes (+1%), while India should see its demand rise by 5% to 1.3 billion tonnes.
Demand from the European Union and that of the United States, on the other hand, should continue to fall in 2024, but much more slowly than in 2023, we learn. In Africa, demand is expected to increase by 6 million tonnes year-on-year to 191 million tonnes. South Africa will continue to concentrate these needs, its share of continental coal consumption expected to be 165 million tonnes, or more than 86%.
But if demand is undeniably increasing, this increase remains much less significant than in previous years. In 2021, it increased by 7.7%, after the Covid-19 shock, then it increased by 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. “After an increase of more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020, global coal demand is expected to stabilize at around 8.87 billion tonnes by 2027” predicts the IEA, which also indicates that production should stabilize by the same deadline.
Abdullah Diop
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07/28/2023 – Global coal production reached a new historic peak in 2022 (IEA)
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