Unanimously. Lately, all the predictions regarding the crypto market and the price of Bitcoin in the medium term are extremely supportive and those of Bitfinex will be no exception to the rule. In their last report of the year, the exchange’s teams took stock of the different scenarios that are on the table for next year, and they all give a Bitcoin price above $145,000. A look back at the kind of study that already makes you want to be in 2025!
- Bitfinex predictions announced that Bitcoin could reach extremely high prices in 2025, with scenarios looking at at least $145,000.
- Bitfinex analyzes described growing institutional demand as a key driver of rising prices, despite volatility expected for the first quarter of 2025.
For Bitfinex, institutional adoption will create strong pressure on bitcoin demand in 2025
As an introduction to their last weekly report of the year, Bitfinex recalls in bulk some simple data which lays the foundations of their resolutely analysis bullish :
- The total capitalization of Bitcoin exceeded 2,000 billion dollars
- Bitcoin thus becomes the seventh most important asset in the world behind Saudi Aramco and exceeds silver
- The 100,000 dollars were well exceeded at the end of the year
- 94.25% of the total supply of 21 million BTC were mined
- THE ETF recorded over $35 billion in net inflows in less than a year
- THE ETF now own 1.13 million bitcoins
Hence this little sentence which ends their introduction:
« The Bitfinex Alpha This week is the last of 2024, and as we head into the holiday season, we have an optimistic outlook on the new year ahead. »
Bitfinex AlphaDecember 16, 2024 – Source: blog.bitfinex.com
And indeed, given the data, how can we not be the least ” optimistic “ ! Concerning next year, the in-house analysts go on to explain that “Bitcoin price declines will be short-lived in 2025 and will not be significant due to strong institutional demand”. Finally, we can read that volatility is expected in the 1st quarter of 2025, but that the broader trend suggests “continued price growth, driven by continued inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased global and institutional adoption.”
Several scenarios put a bitcoin at $145,000, $200,000, $339,000 and even $900,000 in the long term!
Based on these observations, the Bitfinex teams imagined several scenarios by comparing this cycle to the previous ones, and here are their results:
- If Bitcoin reproduces the cycle of 2021 with an increase of around 40% above its moving averages, “it could potentially reach $339,000”
- If it is the cycle of 2017 which replays itself, and it is a scenario “less likely”Bitcoin could reach $290,000 by early 2026
- In all cases, the price will be “at least $145,000 and potentially more than $200,000 under favorable conditions”
However, the relevance of cycles of Bitcoin is questioned by some observers who highlight different factors such as the American strategic reserve. This turning point in the market could disrupt four-year cycles and bring crypto into a Super cyclebut this is all pure speculation. Finally, for a small ultra-optimistic fringe on the future of cryptocurrency and the adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, it could one day reach the capitalization of gold and thus be worth the crazy price of $900,000 per unit!
The Bitfinex report aims to be realistic and this is why it conditions its predictions on macroeconomic data concerning the United States and in particular on the decisions of the Trump administration. So, “even if the return of Trump could create a first wave of optimism in the markets, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the ability of his administration to meet these external challenges”. The Bitcoin market to this day remains highly correlated to the rest of the US and global economy, and as long as it goes, so goes it. For the rest, see you in 2025.
