French energy consumption continues to decline

The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has just published its energy market observatory for the 3rd quarter of 2024. This highly anticipated inventory highlights a continued decline in gas consumption, which has only just come not compensate for stable electricity consumption, both in the residential and non-residential segments.

Electricity: stable consumption and increase in the number of meters

Annualized electricity consumption as of September 30, 2024 stands at 142.12 TWh compared to 142.24 TWh a year earlier for residential sites. Slight recovery, on the other hand, in non-residential consumption which increased from 259.71 TWh on September 30, 2023 to 262.14 TWh on September 30, 2024. Over one year, national electricity consumption increases by 0.5%.

Annualized consumption taken from figures from the Quarterly Energy Market Observatory of the Energy Regulatory Commission.

This stability is especially interesting to compare with the increase in the number of meters. The number of residential meters increases by 1% year-on-year to 34,696,000 as of September 30.

Annualized consumption taken from figures from the Quarterly Energy Market Observatory of the Energy Regulatory Commission.

The annual electricity consumption per residential meter is therefore slightly decreasingat 4096 kWh. For comparison, it stood at 4,590 kWh in 2019. This gradual decline is explained by sobriety and improvement in the energy efficiency of homes. She is surprising as electricity gradually replaces fuel oil, propane and natural gas as heating methodand that almostone million electric vehicles have been registered in the meantime.

Gas: the decline continues

The gas consumption is trending downwardand suffered a sharp decline as part of the energy market crisis of summer 2022. Over one year, it fell by 8.3% with 354.7 TWh as of September 30, 2024.

Annualized consumption taken from figures from the Quarterly Energy Market Observatory of the Energy Regulatory Commission.

This drop in consumption is explained by a drop in the number of meters of around -1% over one year, both in the residential and non-residential segments. The decline in annual gas consumption by residential meter is therefore marked at 9276 kWh as of September 30, 2024, compared to 10,131 kWh a year earlier. Over 5 years, the decline is even more obvious at -18% since consumption stood, in 2019, at 11,293 kWh per residential meter.

Annualized consumption taken from figures from the Quarterly Energy Market Observatory of the Energy Regulatory Commission.

What consequences for consumers?

We can welcome the drop in gas consumption in France, especially as biogas injection has increased by around 10 TWh per year over the last 5 years. There national consumption of fossil gas has therefore fallen by more than 20% since 2019.

In terms of pricing, the unit price has increased significantly, which is not offset by the drop in consumption. The bill therefore increased even though consumption fell, both for electricity and for gas.

THE outlook is bad for gas consumerswhich will bear increasing network costs, and probable tax increases, linked to the fossil and imported nature of their energy. For electricity, an unprecedented drop will take place on February 1, providing relief to households after the increases linked to the energy crisis. The subject of the years to come will not be so much the price of the kWh as the time of consumption. Electricity will be very expensive in winter and at peak times, and cheap the rest of the time.

At the strategic level, EDF needs a electrification of uses to justify the construction of new EPRs and gradually replace electricity with gas. This electrification is long overdue.

Source: Electricity and natural gas retail market observatory, 3rd quarter 2024