(BFM Bourse) – The European aeronautical group delivered 84 aircraft in November, a figure in line with expectations. To reach around 770 devices, its target for 2024, the company will have to deliver more than 120 devices in the month of December.
As with almost every financial year, Airbus will have to work hard in the last month of the year to meet its objectives. The aeronautics and defense group announced this Friday that it had delivered 84 aircraft for the month of November. This represents a clear acceleration compared to the 62 aircraft in October, as well as an increase of 30% over one year.
This figure of 84 deliveries is also in line with expectations. Jefferies was counting on 85 aircraft, Deutsche Bank judged on Monday that a total of more than 80 was “attainable”.
For its part, the Reuters agency indicated earlier this week that these deliveries had exceeded 80, citing industrial sources.
Consequently, the Airbus stock price moved moderately following this announcement, gaining 1.8% to 156.36 euros around 11:30 a.m., in a very well oriented market, with the CAC 40 gaining 1.4% to 7,429, 93 points at the same time.
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A tense month of December
The important question remains whether the aircraft manufacturer will meet its annual delivery target. Airbus plans to deliver “around” 770 aircraft in 2024, a formulation which leads analysts to estimate that the company could be satisfied with a slightly lower figure.
Jefferies is therefore counting on 765 devices. The bank considers, in passing, that the 84 units in November “should help to allay certain concerns (from the market, Editor's note) regarding delivery performance at the end of the year”. For its part, Deutsche Bank retained a forecast of 761 aircraft on Monday.
In any case, the last month of 2024 will be intense. Between January 1 and November 30, Airbus delivered 643 aircraft to 82 customers. To be around 770 units, the company must therefore increase to 127 deliveries in the month of December (compared to 84 in November).
The European group is nevertheless used to these high-tension end-of-years. This figure of 127 deliveries “is exactly what Airbus achieved in December 2017 and 2018,” recalls Deutsche Bank. And the absolute record remains at 138 aircraft in 2019.
Certainly these delivery levels had been reached while the logistics chain was experiencing much less tension than currently. This year Airbus suffered from supply problems for its engines, in particular, but also in aerostructures (fuselage, wings, nacelles) and interior equipment.
-These problems, coupled with the difficulties of its defense and space division, led the company to issue a heavy profit warning in June. The company then lowered its delivery target to 770 aircraft compared to 800 previously.
A helping hand from Saffron
Compared to deliveries in December 2023 (112 aircraft), Airbus will have to increase the rate by 13% over the current month to meet its 2024 objective, a growth which seems achievable in the eyes of Jefferies.
The bank also notes that the pace of production could intensify in mid-December. This because CFM International, a joint venture between Safran and General Electric which supplies Leap engines for Airbus' A320 neo family, has committed to redirecting more engines to Airbus at the expense of aftermarket.
“Depending on the volumes supplied by Safran”, Airbus could “even reach 136 deliveries estimated in December”, Deutsche Bank estimated on Monday.
Remember that the progress of Airbus deliveries is closely monitored by the market because it is when a customer receives their plane in due form that they make the bulk of the payment. The trajectory of the group's device deliveries thus gives an indication of its cash generation.
Since 2021, Airbus has been leading a delicate ramp-up in the production of its aircraft, particularly in its single-aisle aircraft, with its flagship family of aircraft, the A320 neo. The company plans to achieve a monthly production rate of 75 aircraft of this family in 2027, an objective that the group initially planned to achieve in 2025.
The company must deal with persistent tensions on its supply chain, which are notably due to the fact that its numerous subcontractors had experienced a “hibernation” phase during the pandemic.
Julien Marion – ©2024 BFM Bourse
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