Will new gasoline cars eventually disappear?

During the 2000s, we experienced the gradual disappearance of atmospheric engines. Diesels had already adopted supercharging a long time ago, followed by gasoline units. Apart from a few separate brands, such as Mazda, no one was banking on the petrol engine without any respiratory aid other than ambient air. But we could just as easily experience another phase of extinction in the years to come with the gasoline engine itself: models sold with blocks without electrical assistance are becoming rare. There are still many of them in the smaller segments which would not be profitable in hybrid, but, if we count the “mHEV” type micro-hybridization which is so popular with Volkswagen, Stellantis and others, the market share of cars gasoline falls every year.

Smooth transition, or not

If some, like Toyota, Honda or even the Koreans of Hyundai Group, have become masters in terms of complete hybridization, others have chosen a more radical path: suddenly switching from thermal to fully electric, skipping this intermediate step which is currently popular in Europe. A strategy which could be expensive in the short term, but whose consequences in the longer term cannot be judged, since Europe is still not committed to the end of the combustion engine after 2035.

Germany, which is not at all a market very focused on hybrids, saw their registrations reach those of gasoline models at least in November. In France, over the first 11 months of the year, the share of gasoline fell from 37 to 30%. Customers have gradually moved towards micro-hybrid or full hybrid offers from manufacturers, especially since they sometimes don’t even have a choice: at Peugeot, for example, if you want a thermal 208 with an automatic gearbox, you will have no choice but to opt for the hybrid. Which, if it actually shows real consumption gains in town, is €3,000 more expensive than the PureTech version without electrical assistance… with a mechanical gearbox.

Did Renault and Toyota hit the mark?

The future therefore does not look bright for gasoline engines. At Renault, for example, we recently noted the disappearance of certain TCEs. And at Volkswagen, micro-hybridization has multiplied on all TSI gasoline models. The progress made over the years on a combustion engine is no longer enough to achieve the CO2 values ​​set by Europe: a dose of electrification is needed. On the other hand, the dose should obviously not be too strong: the share of rechargeable hybrids has collapsed to only 7% in France. The right choice therefore seems to be that of Toyota and Renault for the moment: real non-rechargeable hybrids which excel in town and on the road, without becoming fuel guzzlers on the motorway.