The Federation of Swiss Businesses, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecasts for the country’s economic growth in both 2024 and 2025.
Economiesuisse on Wednesday revised significantly downwards its inflation estimates for the year which is ending, as for the following one, compared to those formulated in June. The Federation of Swiss Businesses, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecasts for the country’s economic growth in both 2024 and 2025.
The inflation projections for the current year were reduced to 1.3%, from 1.7%, and for next year to 0.8%, from 1.4%. According to the authors of the biennial report, gross domestic product (GDP) is heading towards growth of 1.1% in 2024, which should subsequently accelerate towards 1.4%.
The increase in challenges for the export industry will not affect all sectors equally. “The pharmaceutical industry and that of medical goods, less exposed to economic fluctuations, will experience stable growth,” observes Rudolf Minsch, chief economist of the employers’ organization and responsible for the publication. The expert is more reserved for the machinery and watchmaking industries, emphasizing the bout of gloom over the important outlets of China and Germany respectively.
The comparative weakness of inflation and indebtedness in Switzerland, as well as the interest rate differentials on loans denominated in francs compared to those in euros or dollars, suggest continued appreciation of the currency. national. Exporters will also likely have to reckon with trade barriers promised by US President-elect Donald Trump, as well as the no less likely retaliatory measures that other countries will adopt.
Service exports, for their part, are doing well and the domestic economy can count on stable consumption, fueled by rising wages and a low vacancy rate. The employment outlook is barely more pessimistic than six months ago, with the unemployment rate raised by ten basis points, to 2.4% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025.
