the OECD lowers its forecast to 0.9% for France in 2025, and warns of the “major risk” of protectionism two months before the return of Donald Trump

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised downwards, Wednesday December 4, its growth forecast for Germany and France in 2025, while raising that concerning global growth, thanks to the dynamism American.

In a political crisis, Paris and Berlin should respectively record 0.9% and 0.7% growth in their GDP next year, a decline of 0.3 points compared to the latest forecasts published by the international institution in September . This will not prevent global growth from showing at 3.3% in 2025, up 0.1 point thanks to a jump in American growth, writes the institution in a report published on Wednesday.

For France, which has been struggling with growing political uncertainty for weeks, which risks leading to the fall of the government on Wednesday, but on which the OECD does not comment, “the budgetary consolidation efforts which will be deployed in 2025 and 2026 will weigh on growth and will partly neutralize the positive effect of the easing of monetary policy on residential and business investment”.

Among the good news, however, “for the second consecutive year, external demand is the main driver of growth in 2024” et “Domestic demand, which benefited from temporary support from private consumption in the third quarter of 2024 due to the Olympics, is expected to recover from 2025, and accelerate as disinflation boosts the power of purchase “.

A “major risk” of renewed protectionism

For its part, Germany has been struggling for two years to recover from the energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which left its mark on its industry: after suffering a recession last year, Berlin should experience zero growth this year, before restarting modestly in 2025, according to the OECD. “Private investment will gradually recover, supported by the scale of corporate savings and the slow fall in interest rates, but uncertainty linked to public action will continue to weigh on investor confidence”writes the economic institution, less than three months before crucial elections for the country. “Exports will gradually recover as demand from Germany's main trading partners strengthens”still estimates the OECD.

Without citing it, the OECD also warned on Wednesday against “major risk” of a resurgence of protectionism among developed countries, two months before the return of Donald Trump at the head of the United States. In addition to a risk of soaring energy prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, “a revival of protectionism, particularly on the part of major economies, constitutes another major risk of deterioration compared to forecasts”writes the organization.

This warning from the institution, which brings together 38 developed countries, comes a few weeks before the induction of Donald Trump into the White House, comfortably re-elected in November at the head of the world's largest economy. At the end of an electoral campaign made in particular on the promise of a surge in customs taxes on products imported into the United States, in the name of the credo “America first”. During his first presidential term, between 2017 and 2021, the billionaire had already increased customs duties on products imported from China and certain partner countries, including the European Union (EU), although on a smaller scale than his campaign promises made in recent months.

Added to probable retaliatory measures from Beijing and the EU, these punitive measures would cost the EU economy $533 billion by 2029, $749 billion for the United States and $827 billion. dollars for China, estimated the consulting firm Roland Berger in a recent study, and could cause global inflation to soar. “Increased uncertainties and a further increase in trade restrictive measures could contribute to higher costs and prices, discouraging investment, weakening innovation and ultimately weighing on growth. »worries the OECD in its report, without citing the United States.

“Remarkable resilience” of the global economy

Especially since beyond Donald Trump, protectionism has regained strength since the Covid-19 pandemic, which brought into broad daylight the hyperdependence of certain States in trade matters, and the war in Ukraine , which led to a brutal reorganization of certain production chains. Other trade conflicts also threaten, like the customs duties imposed by the EU on China concerning imports of electric vehicles, which gave rise to a response from Beijing with the announcement of increased taxation of brandies imported from the EU, including cognac.

For now, “the global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite the major shocks to which it has been subjected, including a pandemic and an energy crisis”notes the OECD: global growth should continue to appear stable, at 3.2% this year then 3.3% next year, and 3.3% in 2026. The slight improvement for global growth in 2025 comes from a sharp increase in the American forecast, now anticipated at 2.4%, compared to 1.6% in September, the OECD attributing it in part to vigorous consumption.

British growth is expected at 1.7%, or 0.5 points more than in September, “thanks to the sharp increase in public spending planned in the autumn budget”estimates the OECD, before fading in 2026 “as soon as the effect of fiscal expansion fades”. Also the subject of greater optimism from the Parisian organization, Chinese growth is expected at 4.7% in 2025 (+ 0.2 points) and 4.4% in 2026, and that of India at 6, 9% next year (+0.1 point) and 6.8% the following year.