Aid for electric cars is melting, government promises are fading. A new blow for all players in the sector, this was the obvious subject for the Watt Else editorial of November 28.
The French government is preparing to reveal the nasty trick it has in store for car manufacturers. Government aid and the penalty continue to give representatives of automobile brands a cold sweat. If they already know that they will lose in 2025, they still do not know if they will be a little, a lot or crazy…
However, the automobile industry has repeatedly implored old and new ministers to give them a little room for maneuver and long-term visibility. Pleas which often remain dead letters when transformed into concrete actions. Worse still, the government could betray the confidence of manufacturers regarding the bonus.
Betrayal according to the rules of the art
At the time of writing these lines (Wednesday November 27), the 2025 government aid system for electric cars has not yet been formalized. However, the first serious leaks have already reached the press, and they are casting a chill among manufacturers. In addition to the reduction in aid amounts, it is rumored that the decree could take immediate effect. The problem: the publication of the decree is planned in the coming days.
The new scales would not wait until January 1 to apply. The 2025 bonus could apply from December 2024, which would deprive manufacturers of a possible windfall effect at the end of the year. If this is confirmed, the maneuver would be seen at best as a betrayal, at worst as a declaration of war.
[Mise à jour du 01/12/2024 : le décret vient d’être publié au Journal Officiel, le nouveau barème du bonus s’applique dès aujourd’hui]
Confusing arbitrations
According to rumors, buyers and manufacturers will therefore have to deal with: a removal of the conversion bonus and certain specific bonuses, a more general reduction in the automobile ecological bonus, and a new round of social leasing later in the year (but which could be more restricted).
No more bonus increased up to €7,000 for the most modest households, it would drop to only €4,000. That of €4,000 would be replaced by a bonus of €3,000, except for the wealthiest households who would only benefit from €2,000 in aid for eligible models. There would no longer be any supplement with the conversion bonus of €1,500 (which could reach up to €5,000 in certain cases), regional aid is also in the process of disappearing.
Electric light utility vehicles would be the new victims of government savings, with their bonus removed. Electric two-wheelers and heavy quadricycles (L7e with permit) could suffer the same fate. A questionable choice which leads to penny-pinching savings, despite everything being necessary according to the government.
[Mise à jour par rapport à l’édito rédigé le 27/11 : après une conférence avec Bercy le 28 novembre après midi, le bonus est confirmé comme indiqué. En revanche, les véhicules utilitaires électriques auront toujours accès à une forme de bonus, financé par une autre source que l’enveloppe de 700 millions du bonus.]
At the foot of the wall
No consultation with the automotive industry preceded these decisions. Manufacturers will have to adapt, faced with a fait accompli, as too often. There is no doubt that all this will not bring down the anger that is bubbling behind the calm and diplomatic facade.
If some people are in favor of a complete end to all forms of subsidies for electric cars (notably its opponents), manufacturers fear observing the same phenomenon as in Germany and Sweden, where this has already happened with consequences. drama on sales. Many imagine that the end of subsidies will lower the prices of electric cars, and miraculously revitalize demand. I would like to believe it, but I especially expect 2025 statistics to be at half mast, despite some promising new models. Some will say that I am too pessimistic, but how can I not be?
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