The unease was perceptible even in this meeting supposed to nourish the Franco-German relationship, a stone’s throw from the Brandenburg Gate. During a conference on the future of Europe bringing together politicians and experts from both banks of the Rhine, Thursday November 28 and Friday November 29 in Berlin, the state of the tandem was in all the conversations, if not frankly mentioned in public interventions. “It’s good to see you together.”joked a spectator, before addressing a question to the Europe advisors of President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, seated side by side, who were speaking in a session on the enlargement of the European Union.
Donald Trump’s victory in the United States and the intensification of fighting in Ukraine have certainly provoked the same reactions in Paris and Berlin: Europe must unite and strengthen itself. But for what? In France and Germany, the internal political situation paralyzes common decision-making and the ability to plan together.
“The dynamic was stopped with the dissolution of the National Assembly”summarizes a German diplomat, for whom “France and Germany have the responsibility, in a moment of rupture, to relaunch the European project.” After the dissolution decided by Emmanuel Macron on June 9, then the breakup of the ruling coalition in Berlin on November 6, the leadership of the two countries on the European scene is considerably weakened.
Scarcity of trade
For several weeks, there has been talk of a trip by Michel Barnier to Berlin, constantly postponed. Meetings between ministers from the two countries have also been canceled, as has the Franco-German council of ministers which was scheduled for January 2025, a few weeks before the anticipated legislative elections on February 23 in Germany. “On the German side, we wonder if there will still be a French government in place at the start of the year, and on the French side, we do not want to do it with a government ending”observes Paul Maurice, secretary general of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations, within the French Institute of International Relations.
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As Berlin enters the electoral campaign, the survival of the executive in Paris is dependent on the goodwill of the oppositions, with a critical budgetary situation which worries many in Germany. “We are still waiting to see the direction Barnier will take on the budgetcomments Social Democratic MP Nils Schmid, close to the German Chancellor. For Germany, it is a matter of concern whether the French government will have the capacity to act. The budgetary situation in France is worse than in Italy or Greece. »
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