En 2008, the election of Mr. Barack Obama to the White House was to herald the advent of a new America, more diverse, more intelligent, more just. It was then judged that this Democratic victory did not constitute an ideological or political rupture – the first African-American president in the history of his country being an intellectual who hated confrontations – but the culmination of a demographic and sociological metamorphosis. On the one hand, the arrival of new migrants had continued to dilute the share of white voters, mainly Republicans. On the other hand and simultaneously, new generations, more educated, and therefore more enlightened, had replaced the old ones, attached to outdated traditions.
The announcement of such felicity seemed all the more providential as it would require almost no effort or struggle, since demography was elevated to the rank of political destiny. The good news therefore delighted European social democracy, which was struggling. And inspired in France the “ Terra Nova strategy », exposed in May 2011 in a note from this foundation which sought to help Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to win the presidential election the following year. The former socialist minister of the economy had already theorized at length about the left’s loss of its working-class electorate in 2002. And had resigned himself to it. Terra Nova therefore proposed that a new bloc made up of women, young people, graduates, « minorities and working-class neighborhoods », that is to say the French equivalent of “ coalition Obama », allows European social democrats to overcome the disaffection of their popular electorate. « The historic coalition of the left centered on the working class is in decline, analyzed Terra Nova. A new coalition is emerging: “the France of tomorrow”, younger, more diverse, more feminized. » We know what happened.
Today, the disillusionment is even harsher in (…)
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