BKGR recommends subscribing to Akdital’s capital increase

BKGR recommends subscribing to Akdital’s capital increase
BKGR recommends subscribing to Akdital’s capital increase

Akdital. Credit: MAP

BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) has recommended subscribing to the capital increase operation of Akdital, which should involve a total amount of approximately 1 billion dirhams (MMDH).

For the purposes of Akdital’s valuation, BKGR relied on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method taking into account forecasts made for the next 10 years, BKGR indicates in its “Flash – Company update”, specifying that in pre-money, this model shows a target price of 780 dirhams (DH), an upside of +16.4% compared to that of June 28, 2024. Following this capital increase, the Group’s financial structure should improve further with the strengthening of its equity, analysts estimate, specifying that this operation should lead to an increase in the public share of Akdital’s capital, from 31.6% to 38.8%.

The raising of 1 MMDH on the stock market coupled with a bank debt, which represents nearly 60% of the financing of the investment per project, should allow Akdital to extend its expansion on the national territory. This budget envelope should be dedicated to the acquisition of medical equipment, equipment and development.

Furthermore, BKGR expresses its confidence in Akdital’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory by aligning its strategies with the project of generalizing Compulsory Health Insurance (AMO) and by capturing the growing demand in the health sector in Morocco.

As a result, and in pre-money, analysts have revised upwards the forecasts for Akdital, while adopting a cautious approach given the potential risk of slippage in the launch of new clinics (3 to 6 months).

Thus, BKGR is counting on consolidated turnover increasing by 50% to 2.861 billion dirhams for the year 2024, an operating result improving by 68% to 550 million dirhams (MDH), and a consolidated net result (RN) increasing by 69% to 334 MDH, setting the net margin at 11.7% against 10.4% in 2023.

In 2025, BKGR forecasts continued double-digit growth in the Group’s consolidated revenues, expected to rise by 45% to MAD 4.148 billion, and a consolidated operating profit which should continue its rise to reach MAD 798 million.

In addition, the consolidated bottom line should, for its part, advance to 490 MDH, with a net margin slightly improving to 11.8%, and Akdital’s net debt should increase.

Regarding dividend distribution, analysts expect to maintain a stable payout level of 81% in 2024 and 2025, which would correspond to respective forecast Dividends per share (DPA) of 8.6 DH and 12.8 DH (compared to 6 DH in 2023), i.e. a target D/Y (editor’s note: Dividend yield) of 1.1% in 2024 (compared to 1.3% based on the subscription price and 1.2% in 2023).

Akdital has obtained the Visa from the Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC) to proceed with a capital increase whose subscription period is scheduled between July 2 and 9, 2024 and should involve an approximate total amount of 1 billion dirhams, by issuing 1,492,537 new shares (subscription price of 670 dirhams per share with coupon attached) with the removal of shareholders’ preferential subscription rights.

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