The typical renewal time for a vehicle by a manufacturer was around 7 years in the 2000s and 2010s. Sometimes even a little more, when sales were still doing well and standards did not force manufacturers to modify everything. , particularly in terms of active safety. But these development times have been drastically reduced over the last 20 years, since we went from 8 to… 5 years on average, according to the figures relayed by our colleagues at The new factory.
An acceleration that we owe to two things: the significant progression of technologies on electrified vehicles, which forces brands to renew more quickly, and standards, for example security (GSR 2), which sometimes make models that are still completely up to date obsolete. But we must also add the desire of manufacturers to launch new models ever faster, even if it means being less rigorous on development, particularly software, or even outsourcing projects as much as possible to reduce R&D times. This is also the case for the Ami, which is not really a Citroën since it was Capgemini who took care of the development, almost from start to finish. But can what can be applied to a micro-city car without a license one day be applied to a sedan or a compact SUV? This cannot be ruled out.
Prototyping and testing in real conditions, which still exist, have however partially given way to new digital thermodynamic testing tools, which make it possible to check the resistance of materials, fluids and other components of a vehicle to stress. This made it possible to accelerate developments. But the remaining running time, which cannot be reduced, has inevitably been reduced somewhat in favor of “virtual” testing of engines, running gear and other parts on software, to be able to go from 8 to 5 years on average for a new model. . Moreover, Siemens, which is the developer of Simcenter used by certain manufacturers, itself speaks of “twice as fast in model development”. Thanks IT.
Outsource the software
The launch of the Volkswagen ID.3 was the perfect illustration of what poses a problem for manufacturers today: managing millions of lines of code when its profession is not, originally, the computer science. Faced with such a wall, which requires the hiring of thousands of specialized engineers in an already competitive market, with IT services companies and other companies in the sector of IT, certain groups have chosen the “easy way” by delegating the infotainment part and sometimes even a little more to Tech giants. Renault, Volvo and others have notably integrated Google natively. The result is clear: it works well, and the comebacks from the field are good, when rivals are down.
Outsourcing, however, has its limits since, in the event of a problem, you will have to turn to the person in charge. And as time passes, the scope of outsourcing increases. Equipment manufacturers, in fact, are more than ever at the center of the design of new models. The growing complexity of cars forces manufacturers to delegate. But what about monitoring this entire embedded software part in the long term? And for how long will updates be ensured, knowing that cybersecurity is becoming an issue? On smartphones, the best, such as Google on its range of mobiles, provide around 7 years of software monitoring. Nothing is assured for the moment on the automobile side…
The disposable car?
As if that were not enough, in the age of applications, sensors of all kinds and artificial intelligence, we must add the price of spare parts. Some, anyway. Cases of VEI (economically irreparable vehicle) could multiply in the medium term, if nothing is done to control after-sales costs. Several thousand euros for LED lights, very expensive windshields with cameras that must be recalibrated in the event of a change, digital instrumentation which, if it malfunctions, will require a complete screen change… The parallel with smartphones is still interesting: the prices for changing a battery or a screen on modern phones are often so high that they ultimately push customers to opt for a new model. For ecology, we’ll come back.
Yesterday, the enemy of the used car was rust, which was slowly killing it. Today, there is no more corrosion or almost no more major mechanical breakdowns, machining and advances in metallurgy having made it possible to better control the dimensions of the parts and reduce the tolerances. Will electronics and computing be the rust of the future? Obsolescence and the prohibitive price of visible parts could indeed become problematic on the second-hand market in the more or less long term. And, while Europe advocates sustainable development and the circular economy, the “typical” car coming out today seems to take a very different path.
