Oil accelerates, the geopolitical risk premium returns to prices

Closing price: Oil prices gained speed on Friday, after a moment of hesitation at the start of the day, the risks linked to the conflict in Ukraine overriding concerns about supply and demand, as well as the rise of the greenback.

The barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. from the North Sea for delivery in January won 1,27% has 75,17 dollars.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.), for delivery the same month, jumped by 1,63% has 71,24 dollars.

“Crude oil prices start to rise again due to nervousness between Russia and NATO“, observed to AFP Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates.

The Kremlin said Friday it was certain that the United States had “Understood” the message from Vladimir Putin in his speech the day before, during which he claimed responsibility for the firing against Ukraine of a new missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead.

This unprecedented shot followed two strikes carried out in recent days by Ukraine on Russian territory using American ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles, weapons with a range of approximately 300 km.

Vladimir Putin estimated that the war in Ukraine had now taken a “global character” and threatened to strike countries supplying weapons to kyiv.

At the same time, Ukraine asked its Western allies on Friday to provide it with new, latest generation air defense systems, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

“Market Prices for Increased Likelihood of Supply Disruption“, noted Mr. Lipow, according to whom the geopolitical premium has indeed “regained the market“.

According to the analyst, the prices of black gold, however, remain contained by oversupply issues in 2025, and operators are also integrating “monthly drop in China's oil demand” et “a hesitant OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies)” on a possible continuation of voluntary production reductions, underlined John Evans, analyst at PVM Energy.

Additionally, the market continues to monitor “the rise of the dollar” Who “reached new heights“explained Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note.

On Friday, the Dollar Index – which compares the greenback to a basket of six currencies – rose to its highest level in two years.

Since oil is most often exchanged in dollars, an appreciation of the greenback increases the oil bill.