A Minister of the Economy contesting in public the budget that he himself helped to develop, to twist the Prime Minister's arm and get him to review their common copy… A curious situation than that provoked, Thursday, November 21, by Antoine Armand. It says a lot about the internal tensions in the government, the fractures within the coalition supposed to support it, and the fragility of a project which is constantly being reworked.
At stake, this time, are the reductions in charges from which businesses benefit. In search of savings, Michel Barnier had planned to reduce them by 4 billion euros. But, as the days went by, the employers and the Macronists increased the pressure to reverse this measure. Thursday, a few hours before a setting meeting in Matignon, the Minister of the Economy himself stepped up to the plate, warning the head of government in an interview with Parisian : “Be careful of the excess tax! Businesses should not be the adjustment variable. » And this close friend of Gabriel Attal added: “Deviating from the pro-business line pursued since 2017 would be a fundamental error. »
A speech applauded by the former prime minister and by the Macronist deputies. “When you are loyal (…)we have a better chance of facing adversity”slipped Mr. Barnier into his speech at the Congress of mayors and intercommunity presidents, as a response to his minister.
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Put together in two weeks by Michel Barnier from the draft left by the previous government, is the 2025 budget being unraveled? By acceding to everyone's demands, releasing 500 million euros here, 1 billion or 2 billion there, will the government be able to achieve its initial objective, to straighten out the public accounts?
A critical question for both the economic and political credibility of Michel Barnier. The markets, already very doubtful about the reality of the austerity plan announced, risk at any time punishing France with a sharp increase in interest rates. And the growing tensions around the budget accentuate the threat of a fall of the government, on the occasion of the vote of a motion of censure on this text.
Budgetary and political uncertainty
“Economic policy becomes illegiblesummarizes the deputy (Renaissance) for Bas-Rhin Charles Sitzenstuhl, although he is supposed to support the government. No one knows whether the priority goes to supply or demand, to businesses or individuals, to attractiveness or consumption. While Michel Barnier affirmed that the recovery would mainly involve savings on spending, and a little through taxes, each day that passes shows the opposite: we are preparing for a fiscal shock worthy of a left-wing government. »
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