After years marked by energy crises and threats of power cuts, France is now well positioned to export unprecedented volumes of electricity to its European neighbors. Thanks to a diversified energy mix and favorable conditions, the country is poised to record notable profits in a context of a tense electricity market.
The renewal of the nuclear and hydraulic fleet
Winter 2022 seems a long way away for the French, when they were encouraged to reduce their electricity consumption to avoid cuts. Today, France's energy system shows signs of robustness, largely thanks to the increased availability of its nuclear and hydraulic fleet. According to Thomas Veyrenc, RTE executive director in charge of strategy and the economy, the prospects for winter 2024-2025 are the best in a decade.
Since the start of the year, the nuclear fleet has seen its capacity increase to reach 47 gigawatts (GW) of availability, with a projection of 50 GW for next January. This revival is mainly due to the repairs undertaken in the power stations and the long-awaited start-up of the Flamanville EPR.
At the same time, hydroelectric production has reached record levels with an increase of 40% compared to 2023, supported by well-filled dams after the drought episodes of previous years. “ This allows us to approach the 2013 record », Underlines Thomas Veyrenc, adding that this performance marks progress for the country's energy security.
Moderate domestic demand and record electricity exports
In parallel with the increase in supply, electricity consumption in France remains moderate, in particular due to increases in energy prices and reinforced energy efficiency efforts since 2022. This continued decline, estimated by RTE at around 6% below the average for the years 2014-2019, promotes the supply-demand balance and allows a larger part of French production to be devoted to export.
Thus, France has already exported more than 78 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity as of November 11, exceeding the previous record established in 2002 with 77 TWh. According to RTE forecasts, this year could end with an export volume of between 85 and 90 TWh, contributing significantly to the French trade balance. “Our nuclear and renewable production fleet is very competitive,” specifies Thomas Veyrenc, recalling that France has additional wind and solar power plants ready to supply European demand, which remains supported by attractive market prices around 100 euros per megawatt hour. .
For the first time in several years, France seems able to approach winter with serenity in terms of energy, benefiting from optimized export capacity and a stabilized nuclear fleet. However, RTE emphasizes that this situation could change in the coming years with the increase in consumption linked to the electrification of certain sectors. Until then, France is capitalizing on its energy surplus to strengthen its role as a key electricity supplier in Europe.
