The benefits are ultimately much greater than expected. A French trader won $155 million (147 million euros) on the Polymarket site after betting on the victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential election, the company Chainalysis announced this Wednesday, November 13.
The man, who calls himself Théo, spoke several times with the Wall Street Journal daily about his bets. He describes himself to them as a “rich Frenchman”, with experience as a trader in several banks over the course of his career. These sums at his disposal, he chose to bet on the American election, to the tune of 70 million dollars (66 million euros) finally established Chainalysis, after initial estimates from Polymarket around 30 million.
Indeed, the American company specializing in cryptocurrency transactions has identified 11 accounts with similar characteristics, much more than the four previously identified with the nicknames “Fredi9999”, “Theo4”, “PrincessCaro” and “Michie”. They were fed at the same time, made bets at the same time, and were emptied simultaneously, according to data collected and cross-referenced by Chainalysis. We thus find new accounts under the names “RepTrump”, “Jenzigo” and “mikatrade77”, underlines the Wall Street Journal.
The way Polymarket works is based on questions that users answer by betting on “yes” or “no”. Théo thus multiplied his bets on several issues, which allowed him to pocket sums of this magnitude. He had notably distributed his money on the following questions: “Will Trump win the presidential election? “, “Will Trump win the popular vote? » or “Will Trump win the election in Pennsylvania?” “.
Among the events he saw coming, the Republican raid in the “Blue Wall” states, and above all, the success of the former president in the “swing states.” Theo had predicted that six of the seven key states would fall into the hands of the businessman, he ended up winning everywhere. However, he does not claim to support the new American president: “My goal is just to make money,” he told the Wall Street Journal just before the election.
To bet with such precision and accuracy, this man whose identity is not known explained to the American economic daily that he began to apply his mathematical know-how to the analysis of American polls during the summer. He came to the conclusion that support for Kamala Harris was overestimated, and that he therefore had every interest in banking on her opponent. “His bet was essentially a bet against the accuracy of polling data,” continues the WSJ. “I am rich enough to do it and I was confident in my analysis,” he said.
Difficult to prove him wrong, since at the end of the vote, the trader Théo thus reimbursed his initial investment, and made a net profit of 85 million dollars (80 million euros). Contacted by the Wall Street Journal, he confirmed the accuracy of this amount.
