“Whatever the victorious candidate and the majorities that emerge from the polls in Parliament, the electoral campaign has highlighted a fairly extreme division in American society on numerous subjects. Also, according to the program announcements, the consequences for global economy and international relations will be very different depending on the elected president. It is difficult to identify whether the markets have really made a bet between the two candidates”, explains Sebastian Paris Horvitz, director of. research at La Banque Postale AM.
“Nevertheless, the general feeling is that the markets have rather tilted towards a victory for D. Trump, particularly in view of certain opinion polls and online betting until a few days ago. This would explain the rise in American stock indices, with promises of corporate tax cuts, while American sovereign interest rates suffered from fears about future public deficits and possible inflationary pressures that more expansionist policies as well as protectionists could provoke,” he continues.
However, at the same time, American economic data showed that in general activity was much more resilient than expected, raising the appetite for risk and pushing operators to revise their expectations of cuts in interest rates. Fed in the medium term.
“What is certain is that, as a paradox, the main American stock indices are still close to their historical highs, while volatility (measured by the implied volatility on options on the S&P) has remained at a high level compared This volatility may partly reflect political uncertainty. a certain fear for the future”, says, moreover, Sebastian Paris Horvitz.
As noted, the economy has surprised with its performance of late. Thus, the first estimate of US GDP growth for the third quarter of 2024, although coming out slightly below expectations, showed an economy which continues to grow above its potential, at 2.8% at an annualized rate. Or just below the 3% posted in the second quarter of 2024.
Unsurprisingly, the primary driver of growth was household consumption, with growth of 3.7% at an annualized rate, an even greater contribution to GDP growth than in the second quarter of 2024. Also, the Public spending remained robust during the quarter. And, for the third quarter in a row, foreign trade contributed negatively to growth.
