Published on 10/28/2024 at 10:25 a.m.
(Boursier.com) — Danone starts the week at 67 euros, up 1.6%, while in Q3, the group’s turnover reached 6,826 million euros, up +4.2% on a comparable basis, thanks to to an increase of +3.6% in volume/mix and +0.7% in price effect. In published data, turnover showed a decrease of -1.2%, reflecting in particular a negative scope effect (-3.1%), mainly linked to the deconsolidation of Horizon Organic and Wallaby. The reported turnover was also penalized by the negative impact of exchange rates (-3.2%), reflecting the depreciation of several currencies against the euro.
BNP Paribas Exane remains ‘neutral’ on the issue, but with an adjusted target increasing to 67 euros, while Barclays is overweighting the stock with a target increasing to 75 euros. Stifel highlights the group’s recovery (vol/mix +3.8%) with the North America zone shining again thanks to strong momentum in high protein and coffee creams, while Europe returns to a position focused on volumes…”We expect revenue and the volume/mix in particular remains solid in 2025 with +3%, against +2.3% for the market consensus. The group should benefit from additional volume leverage, generating an adjusted EBIT margin of +46 basis points (consensus +36bps), because it is currently underutilizing some of its assets (EDP in Europe)” comments the broker. “We have slightly modified our estimates for fiscal years 24-26. We model organic sales growth in FY24 at +4.1%, driven by volume/mix at +2.7% (consensus +2.5%). We confirm our purchase opinion and our price target of 72 euros” concludes the broker.
