The Point: American election, tensions in the Middle East, nothing seems to disturb the markets. How do you explain it?
Vincent Mortier, director of management at Amundi. © Magali Delporte
Vincent Mortier: The markets see the glass half full. More than ever, the United States is leading the game. But what are investors seeing? Growth declines smoothly with no prospect of recession, inflation lands at 2%, corporate profits increase. The consensus expects an increase of 15% in 2025. Finally, whoever the next president is, the policy pursued should be favorable to the business of American companies, whether it is the establishment of new customs barriers which encourage activity on the American soil, tax cuts or aid to industry.
Do you share this optimism?
Markets do not take into account various risks. First of all, the risk of inflation underlying the establishment of new customs barriers, curbs on immigration, the increase in prices of agricultural materials linked to climate change, but also possible increases in energy prices if tensions in the Middle East intensify. They also do not take into account the risk of rising rates if the debt goes out of control, nor the risk of recession that this increase could generate.
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