2034: Europe increased tenfold or atomized?

2034: Europe increased tenfold or atomized?
2034: Europe increased tenfold or atomized?

From fatigue to Euroxit

Why are we here? The political and ruling class of the EU no longer knows where to go and is panicking about a darkened future within this Europe hit since the beginning of the 2020 decade by a series of challenges that it did not expect. . From the Covid-19 pandemic to the long war in Ukraine, the nationalist and populist awakening which is seizing power in many Member States, the acts of bioterrorism which have multiplied on the part of radicalized activists who consider that democracies are not capable of correctly and fully leading climate transitions, with the explosion of the Sahelian powder keg whose violence crosses the Mediterranean Basin: the EU has been going from crisis to crisis for 15 years.

By procrastinating, it became divided in the face of the challenges, especially since part of the EU public paid little attention to these profound shifts and felt a sense of fatigue with Europe. Becoming inaudible and paralyzed over the years, the EU has not seen its own disintegration being prepared, even though it is indeed a “Euroxit” that is quietly moving forward at the start of the 2030 decade. get out of the European continent. In 2029, nine years after the United Kingdom’s Brexit, nine Member States decide to no longer be members and leave the Community.

Among them, there are five Eastern European states, worried about the hesitations of the West in the face of the persistent tumults of the Ukrainian front and the threats of Russian attack from the exclave of Kaliningrad, from which Lithuania is invaded in 2028. The country loses a third of its territory in the face of this breakthrough, but neither the EU nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reacts. It must be said that Washington, where Donald Trump took over the reins of the White House in 2025, has decreed a pause in its transatlantic security partnership. The United States nevertheless proposes, in 2029, to the five European countries leaving the EU to rely on strategic supervision like what prevails for South Korea in Asia, massing troops and equipment military in these spaces further away from Brussels than ever.

In this paralyzed and amputated EU, there are also these four Southern European states among the leavers. With faltering economies, they are turning to Beijing, not without certain concessions in return, particularly port ones. The Mediterranean, held more tightly by Chinese power, is itself in the midst of a diplomatic and migratory slump. Socio-economic and political disorders have continued to recur in the Sahel, to the point of causing major unrest in Tunisia and Algeria. The pressure is increasing towards a Europe overwhelmed by these distress trips.

In 2030, while the European elections of 2029 saw the far-right parties win all the votes, not without collusion with those of the far left whose anti-European agenda echoed, there is no longer any political common European. The new Parliament, made up of deputies who came to unravel community history, began to unravel everything. As a symbol, agriculture is paying the price, which for a long time embodied this integrated Europe. And yet, the risks of quantitative food insecurity are resurfacing. Anti-agricultural bioterrorist acts are increasing on European soil, at plant and animal level, without their origin being clearly identified. Some think these are attacks to accentuate the vulnerabilities of the EU, others point the finger at activists for societal collapse due to lack of sufficient ecological transitions.

In this context, hyper-sovereignty is gaining ground, to the point that regional powers are gaining the upper hand. In 2033, it is the great return of the Europe of 250: so many regions which dream of themselves as territorial, autonomous and autarkic duchies, and of course better than the others, close neighbors or from the former country of belonging . Faced with this medieval-looking European space, the last guardians of the European spirit say that it is better to overturn the table to prevent the EU from being fully consumed and suddenly disappearing.

Vote to (re)make history

In 2034, in an attempt to provoke a large-scale reaction, the European Commission, which frees itself from the institutional rules and executive power of the European Parliament, in agreement with the last 18 Member States, or at least some of them and who have obtained a decision-making majority to do so, launches into the void, without any possible abseil rope, and organizes a vote which aims to be an electroshock in substance and form. European citizens are asked to choose between two scenarios. They are literally amazed by what is offered to them. The Parliament at the end of its mandate is itself put under cover and delegitimized despite several attempts by certain MEPs to oppose this strategy of the Commission, complicit with several chancelleries within the Member States. In a few days, this election has become everyone’s discussion, including in a part of the world which is surprised to see the EU leaving its sacrosanct rules of good governance and its aversion to risk-taking, which has gradually become sickly since the beginning of this century. There, it’s the most complete tumble. How can we in the EU fall into this technological and authoritarian excess? What is it concretely?

Voting no longer consists of electing MEPs on the basis of lists established in each country and by political parties or coalitions of them. EU citizens are asked to choose between two scenarios, through a mandatory electronic vote, or almost, since not expressing themselves means a loss of identity and therefore nationality for each individual over the age of 16. (the age now set for voting in each Member State). It should be noted here that all EU citizens are registered by a QR code personalized, from which all administrative documents are available, but which simultaneously generates a dynamic photograph of everyone’s actions and actions. Don’t have the app on your phone smartphone which allows us to present this QR code has become impossible as it makes everyday life easier, not without certain controversies over the use of this data and the digital surveillance that can be done with it.

In other words, in 2034, what was ephemeral in 2020-2021 with the Stop-Covid application and its controls in the event of mobility, becomes essential with Go-Citizen and its authorizations for anyone, in the EU, wishing to be able to carry out their existence. Not voting will therefore block all of the citizen’s rights, including to flee the EU if they wished. European decision-makers were inspired by experiences carried out elsewhere in the world to design these techniques and practices which are very far removed from standards prevailing in the community space.

So let’s come back to this referendum. Two scenarios are put forward, each voter must select only one. The first, entitled “Euroxit”, proposes to continue with the course of things without any artificial backpedaling. This is the preserved reality, even if it proves not very favorable to the rescue of the EU. The second scenario makes it possible to rewrite the past decade (2024-2034), using AI, and to relaunch European construction with increased ambition from 2034. This scenario is called “Eurovision”, both because that it wants to be turned towards the future and with a long view, but also in echo of this old song competition which existed for 68 years and stopped after the 2024 edition due to geopolitical sensitivities little imaginable before.

From Eurovision to reality

In this heavy climate of June 2034, many European citizens remember these strange years which unfolded with noise and excitement after a spring of 2020 when general confinement actually signaled the end of these “Thirty Glandeuses”, i that is to say these three decades which, from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the coronavirus, will have made the EU believe that History would be joyful, that the march of the world would be softened and that strategic idleness was permitted . So, they are hesitant as this barely believable yet very real election approaches. To save the EU and give it chances in the future, should they be able to entrust supermachines with the rewriting of 14 years of history and therefore take a leap into the unknown… of the past?

The two scenarios proposed, for this compulsory vote, are still so clear-cut! On the one hand, a Europe which is getting moving again, which is updating its operating software and which dares to move towards a more federal future, the only geopolitical upsurge capable of giving it chances of survival in this century where discomfort is is permanently resettled. On the other, a national-populist Europe, perforated by the needles of unraveling and heading straight towards a universe of Mad Maxwith a mosaic of independent nations or micronations.

Rest assured, we are not in 2034. The European elections of June 2024 are very classic. Everyone is free to vote or not, AI is not (yet?) on the menu for the upcoming election. On the other hand, these elections come at a low point in history. The paradox of the EU is simple: we generally want to enter it when we find ourselves outside it and very close, we do not always appreciate our chance of being part of it and we sometimes think of leaving it. In addition to the global backdrop which is being reconfigured around the rivalry between the United States and China, the issues linked to enlargements will weigh with certainty in the coming years. But above all, it is the battle of states of mind that will rage. What tone will dominate the second half of the current decade and the 2030s? Can the EU, which was built and developed on the prism of peace, bear having to think again about war and insecurities? What capacity do Europeans have to roll up their sleeves, look at the world as it is and correctly map the horizons, therefore both monitoring risks but also seizing opportunities and restoring a mobilizing narrative?

Little anecdote: an exhibition on the Titanic will be held in Brussels in 2024. This cannot be invented! My advice, don’t go see her, the scenario is known. If Europeans do not want to sink, let them get out of this idleness of living room, that they demand that the orchestra can play the melody of happiness and that they become aware of their strengths in the unity of action!

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