Julius Bär forecast: assets under management after four months at 457 billion

Julius Bär forecast: assets under management after four months at 457 billion
Julius Bär forecast: assets under management after four months at 457 billion

Zurich (awp) – Asset manager Julius Bär will publish an interim report for the first four months of 2024 on Thursday May 23. Five analysts participated in the AWP consensus:

au 30.04.2024 (en mrd CHF)              consensus AWP  fourchette  31.12.2023A  estimations  avoirs sous gestion (AuM)     457         443 - 468      427          5                                                         30.04.2023A                                                                       afflux argent nouveau (NNM)   5,1         4,7 - 5,7      3,5          4  (en pb) marge brute                    86          83 - 88  "supérieur à 92"  4   (en %)                    rapport coûts/revenus         69,7       68,0 - 71,0      66,0        4          

FOCUS: analysts are counting on an acceleration in the inflow of new money, in particular thanks to the hiring of new customer advisors. The increase in assets under management (AuM) should be the result of the weakening of the franc and positive market developments.

OBJECTIVES: over the period 2023-2025, the bank anticipates an adjusted pre-tax margin of between 28 and 31 basis points (bp) and a ratio between costs and revenues “below 64%”. The adjusted profit before taxes must show annual growth above 10% and the adjusted return on hard capital (CET1) must reach 30%.

Faced with the heavy depreciation recorded as part of the credits granted to the bankrupt Austrian group Signa, the Zurich establishment raised its gross savings target to 130 million Swiss francs in February, compared to 120 million previously, over the period 2023-2025 . This year, 250 positions must be eliminated, but at the same time the group wants to recruit 60 to 65 customer advisors.

FOR THE MEMORY: splashed by the resounding bankruptcy of the real estate empire of the Austrian René Benko, Julius Bär drew the consequences at the beginning of February. His boss Philipp Rickenbacher was fired, bonuses cut and the wealth manager abandoned the risky business with private loans to his wealthy clientele. Current deputy general manager Nic Dreckmann will take over in the interim and an “external search” has been launched to find a successor.

The bank had seen its results heavily penalized by this affair. In 2023, the Zurich group saw its operating income contract by 15.9% to 3.24 billion Swiss francs. This decline is the consequence of a net loss on credits of 606.3 million having caused an amortization of 586 million and which is linked to the defaulting credit granted to Mr. Benko. Pre-tax profit was halved to 513.8 million and net profit (IFRS) group share fell 52.2% to 454 million.

At the beginning of May, Julius Bär finalized the sale of its entire Italian subsidiary Kairos to Anima Holding. This transaction, announced for between 20 and 25 million euros, was part of the refocusing of the bank’s activities on its core business.

SHARE PRICE: Since the start of the year, Julius Bär shares have jumped 15%, while the SPI index has only increased 10%. But in 2023, registered shares had fallen by 12%.




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