Bitcoin, new ATH coming? Analysis of May 22, 2024

Bitcoin has performed almost 20% since its rebound to $60,000. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) price situation

Bitcoin has shown signs of renewed interest from buyers since $57,000. It was then around $60,000 that the parent cryptocurrency confirmed this interest by subsequently crossing, one by one, the resistance levels identified in the analysis of May 15. The $64,000 – 65,000 zone was first crossed before reaching the $67,000 – 68,000 zone. Finally, this buying momentum continued until testing the resistance of $71,000. However, it appears that buyer interest at this level has not been fueled.

Indeed, at the time of writing this text, the price of Bitcoin is stabilizing in a price range around $69,500. So, cryptocurrency appears to be in a small period of indecision. Nevertheless, the latest bullish fluctuations have allowed it to surpass the 50-day moving averages. Additionally, it is no surprise that Bitcoin’s momentum has picked up with a vengeance, as evidenced by oscillators and the price of BTC itself. Thus, all of these elements now seem to allow us to be more confident about the continuation of the upward trend.

BTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has increased in the same direction as its price. This demonstrates in principle a conviction of speculators mainly oriented towards buying. This hypothesis can be confirmed by a rebound in the funding rate, which reflects a price gap between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying, probably due to increased upward pressure on the latter. On the liquidation side, we can observe a capitulation of sellers through significant liquidations of short positions.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rateBitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate

The heat map of liquidations over the past three months indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed two notable liquidation zones. First the $67,000, then the $71,000. Reaching this last level caused a drop in its price, demonstrating selling interest. Now, the closest liquidation zone to the current BTC price is in the price range between $72,000 and $74,500. Below that, we can also note the area between $65,000 and $66,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)

Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

  • As long as the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $65,000, we can anticipate a break of $71,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be in a price range around $73,000. Higher we can highlight the ATH of Bitcoin just below $74,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase equivalent to 6%.
  • If the price of Bitcoin does not remain above $65,000, we could consider support for buying interest at $63,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $61,000. Further down, we can note the psychological threshold of $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 14%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has recently seen a significant surge in interest, breaking through several key resistance levels. Despite a current phase of indecision, investor confidence persists, supporting the anticipation of a continuation of the trend for cryptocurrency. However, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.

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Family Trading

Family Trading is a Community of own-account traders active since 2017 offering Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets including that of cryptocurrencies with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader on the crypto market.

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