The Market Check – Bitcoin tops over $150,000 according to these cycle indicators

Return of the craze for BTC? – Since March, the price of Bitcoin has been in a correction phase. The price even briefly fell below $60,000 before recovering. It has now been more than 60 days since BTC failed to mark a new all-time high. However, after four straight weeks of outflows into investment products linked to cryptocurrencies, capital is returning. Is Bitcoin taking a break before launching a new upward phase? Has BTC already finished its cycle? The Market Check aims to see if market cycle indicators are overheating, or if they indicate that a further rise is still possible. Let’s immediately analyze the situation of the king of cryptocurrencies!

The price of Bitcoin remains above the realized price of short-term holders

THE short-term holders are operators who have accumulated BTC for less than 155 days. Concretely, these are market players who tend to be strongly impacted by price movements in the short term, and therefore by their emotions. When the price changes beyond the realized price of short-term holders (orange curve), the price is considered to be bullish. Therefore, according to the graph from the Lookintobitcoin site, the BTC is bullish :

Graph representing the realized price of short-term holders of Bitcoin. Source: lookintobitcoin

THE average acquisition price of short-term holders is around the $60,000. Therefore, it will be necessary keep that psychological round number to avoid bearish volatility. In an upward trend, the price tends to bounce at the orange curve. From then on, one could imagine that the correction is coming to an end. Buyers could thus regain control.

A market top of $350,000 for BTC according to the Top Cap? Not sure…

All crypto investors are looking to estimate a market top potential to set an achievable goal, and sometimes also, to reassure yourself. No one is capable of knowing with certainty the price of the next market top, but some indicators try to guess it using mathematics. This is the case of theTop Cap indicator :

The Top Cap indicator indicates a market top of $350,000.The Top Cap indicator indicates a market top of $350,000.
Top Cap indicator chart. Source: Lookintobitcoin

The Top Cap was set up by Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst. However, this indicator is not on-chain, since it uses data from the market capitalization and price of Bitcoin. During the history of Bitcoin, the indicator has correctly predicts peaks in 2011, 2013, and 2017. On the other hand, the indicator predicted a market top of more than $100,000 in 2021. We can now say that the indicator was wrong for the top of 2021. This time, if we refer to this indicator, BTC could get $350,000. After missing the previous high of 2021, will he be right on this cycle? Whatever happens, the Top Cap indicates that BTC could continue to rise.

On the way to $150,000 on BTC?

THE 2 Year MA Multiplier is an indicator that was developed for operators who invest for the long termand who wish ride the market cycles. The indicator is composed of a two-year moving average which allows you to know when the BTC is undervalued (green). To identify times when BTC is overheating, a multiple of the two-year moving average has been added (MA x 5 in red). As we can see, from these moving averages, BTC was interesting to buy in the long term when it was trading below $35,000 :

According to the 2-Year MA Multiplier, BTC could be overheating around $150,000.According to the 2-Year MA Multiplier, BTC could be overheating around $150,000.
2-Year MA Multiplier Indicator. Source: Lookintobitcoin

Thus, the course is not more in an interesting location on the long term. Now, for investors who aim for the long term, it is interesting to think about the profit taking. The indicator has correctly indicated the latest market tops. Currently, the red curve is at approximately $150,000. A theoretical objective which seems much more reasonable, although there is no certainty that BTC can reach these famous $150,000. If BTC manages to return to around this red curve, investors who are betting on the long term will have every interest in take profits after such a significant increase.

Despite the recent ATH, Bitcoin is still not overheating

Bitcoin moves away from the 200-week moving average

Another indicator seems to say that the Bitcoin has not yet finished its upward cycle. Historically, when the price approaches the 200-week moving averageBTC is close to a market low. Conversely, when BTCmoves away from this moving average, traders are experiencing FOMO, and the price is overheating :

The indicator shows that Bitcoin is not yet overheating like in recent market cycles.The indicator shows that Bitcoin is not yet overheating like in recent market cycles.
Bitcoin 200-week moving average. Source: Lookintobitcoin

Bitcoin tends to be overvalued when the points approach the red color. Right now, the price is relatively away from the moving average. However, the probabilities are tilted towards new wave of increase before being in a period of overheating.

A few more months of increase for the price of Bitcoin?

With the new ATH marked on Bitcoin, the percentage of circulating supply in profit on Bitcoin has returned close to 100%. During the last two cycles, the top appeared following a long period when operators were profit :

  • In 2017 : the operators were almost all in profit for almost a year.
  • In 2021 : lasting approximately six monthsalmost 100% of the circulating supply was in profit.
Bitcoin tends to mark a market peak after a long period where almost all operators are in profit.Bitcoin tends to mark a market peak after a long period where almost all operators are in profit.
Circulating supply in profit on Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode

If the cycles are similar, we can imagine that the overheating period is still far from being equivalent to the last cycles. The percentage of circulating supply in profit also indicates that the BTC could experience a new phase of rise in the coming weeks or months.

Indicators presented in the previous edition of The Market Check indicated that the price of Bitcoin could well be in the middle of the cycle. And the market can still be considered bullish. Indeed, the realized price of short-term holders continues to support the price. To remain bullish, buyers will have to defend the psychological threshold of $60,000. Indicators such as the percentage of circulating supply in profit or the deviation from the 200-week moving average show that BTC is still far from overheating. If the cycles continue, BTC could start to rise again and reach a new all-time high. Thus, BTC could go back beyond $70,000 to reach $80,000. Two indicators presented in this article allow us to project ourselves onto the next market peak. These metrics estimate that it is possible to see BTC touch $150,000.



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