What is the Polymarket platform, which now shows Donald Trump as the big favorite in the American election? – Liberation

What is the Polymarket platform, which now shows Donald Trump as the big favorite in the American election? – Liberation
What is the Polymarket platform, which now shows Donald Trump as the big favorite in the American election? – Liberation

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2024 US electionsdossier

The platform, notably put forward by Elon Musk, allows you to bet on the outcome of the American elections.

«Kamala [Harris] is collapsing before our eyes.” Donald Trump would be taking a decisive lead in the presidential race, less than a month before the election, if we are to believe Elon Musk and several pro-Republican influencers. To support this, they share screenshots from the Polymarket site, which gives the Republican candidate the winner at 54% compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. Some publications, on X or TikTok, have tens of millions of views.

Polymarket is not a survey institute but a platform which allows you to bet on “different future events as varied as sport, politics or pop culture”. Founded in 2020, the platform had its first hour of glory in 2023, when it allowed Internet users to bet on the fact that the submarine would be found Titan before its occupants run out of oxygen. It returns to the forefront this year thanks to the American elections, largely highlighted by supporters of Donald Trump.

“There is real money at stake”

It works on a simple principle: the price of shares that Internet users can trade on Polymarket is supposed to represent the probability that an event will occur. “For example, in the market predicting the victory of [l’équipe de basket des] Miami Heat

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