He lives between Paris and Lussan (Gard) and publishes a book on Gaza: former diplomat Yves Aubin de La Messuzière deciphers the conflict and its escalation in recent weeks.
You have just published “Gaza, analysis of a tragedy” at the beginning of September. In a few weeks, the situation has gotten even worse. What is your view on the latest events?
I actually completed my manuscript in August. Today we are on the verge of a regional conflagration. My book is an objective analysis without bias. I do not belong to any camp except that of peace and humanists, including Stéphane Hessel who was my mentor in diplomacy. I know Israel as well as the Arab countries. I try to provide the most objective information on the massacre of October 7, the reaction of the IDF, and these figures of 40,000 deaths which, if we are to believe all the UN agencies, will undoubtedly double. We are witnessing not only a humanitarian crisis but also the erasure of a territory.
You know Africa and the Middle East having been an ambassador there…
I was in fact stationed in Baghdad, then in Tunis and Rome as ambassador, but I was also director at the Quai d’Orsay for North Africa and the Middle East. I stayed in this kibbutz that burned, I went to Gaza several times, including after my retirement, after 2009, when I was asked to carry out “discreet missions”, to pass messages to Hamas. There I met Ismaël Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran on July 31. He was then the democratically elected Prime Minister. I carried out three missions, not secret, but discreet, with American and British diplomats.
Diplomacy did not see October 7 coming, nor the current crisis?
It was wrongly considered that the Palestinian question had become a low-intensity conflict, that it had lost its centrality since there had been the Abraham Accords. It was a huge error of analysis and anticipation! It was obvious that things were going to explode, either in Gaza or in the West Bank, for lack of resolution of the root of the problem, namely the recognition of a Palestinian state. Knowing the terrain well, I have often said be careful and I think that many other diplomats have written reports to this effect. The situation in Gaza had become a sort of pressure cooker which explains the savagery, not only of Hamas, but also of these young people on motorbikes who massacred other young people, took hostages…
In your opinion, is Hezbollah capable of reorganizing itself very quickly after the elimination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah?
On a military level, Hamas is extremely weakened and is no longer able to penetrate Israeli territory as it did by committing this massacre of October 7. Hezbollah is much more powerful than Hamas. It is more than a militia, it is an army, it is a proto-state which controls the southern districts of Beirut and the airport. Thanks to Iran, they have ballistic power. Their fighters, between 20,000 and 30,000, are better trained than those of Hamas. Eliminating political leadership has certainly weakened them. With the pager affair, we thought that they could no longer communicate with each other, and then we realized that they had another network, via optical fiber. We must not neglect the fact that Hamas, like Hezbollah, permeates part of societies! Israel was betting on intercommunal clashes in Lebanon which, so far, have not occurred.
How do you see the conflict evolving?
If Kamala Harris is elected in the USA, it seems that she will mobilize, as Clinton did at the time of Camp David. An agreement is not that complicated, but it requires strong political will. Who will succeed Netanyahu is another determining factor. He bears responsibility for the opening of a new front, for the current escalation. Now there is the attack on Iran, which is the absolute devil for the Americans. However, let us not neglect the weight of the powers of the Global South, Brazil, India, South Africa, which go further than other states. South Africa speaks of crimes of genocide, and has referred the matter to the International Court of Justice, which has not yet ruled. But it is also a new phenomenon: international justice is taking action. The International Criminal Court is preparing to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu, as was done against certain members of Hamas, or against Putin. Likewise, the International Court of Justice has just handed down a very important judgment, which denounces in a very clear and well-argued manner Israel’s policy of occupation and colonization which is the root of the problem.
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