U.S. Open quarterfinals watch guide: Emma Navarro aims for semis; an Australian Open final rematch

Follow live coverage of day nine at the 2024 U.S. Open

Day nine of the U.S. Open brings the first batch of quarterfinals.

Americans Emma Navarro and Frances Tiafoe are two wins away from a home Grand Slam final, while one matchup offers a rerun of January’s Australian Open final.

Here’s what to look out for in each match.

Arthur Ashe

Start time: Noon ET, 9 am PT
TV: ESPN, Tennis Channel

Paula Badosa (26) vs. Emma Navarro (13)

How different two tennis seasons can be before ending in the same place.

When Paula Badosa travelled to Indian Wells, California, back in March for the WTA 1000 tournament, she was managing an ongoing lower back problem. She had to withdraw from her first-round match and doctors told her that managing that injury would make it “very complicated” to continue her career. In desperation, the doctors and Badosa settled on trying cortisone shots. By Wimbledon four months later, she was crying on the grass, but tears of joy at being back in the last 16 for the first time in three years. She has gone one better than that here in New York.

For Emma Navarro, another season of smooth progress entered a different league when she faced Coco Gauff at Wimbledon in July. After the withdrawal of Aryna Sabalenka and the early exit of Iga Swiatek, Gauff figured to be a favorite for the title in London. However, Navarro picked at Gauff’s weaknesses, slicing into her forehand and forcing her to generate pace, hitting her groundstrokes close to the baseline again and again and again. She knocked Gauff out.

Then, Sunday, she did it again, in the stadium where 12 months ago Gauff cemented her position at the top of American tennis.

Navarro will enter the top 10 in the world when this tournament is over, with the potential to rise higher still. Solidity is the hallmark of her game, but her forehand is as devastating and as beautiful as they come. Badosa has the slightly more explosive power, but if Navarro can redirect the pace of Badosa’s shots effectively, she could well be on the way to a first Grand Slam semifinal.

Taylor Fritz (12) vs. Alexander Zverev (4)

Taylor Fritz has already told everybody about the crux of this matchup.

“If one of us doesn’t serve well, or the other one returns really well, that’s always going to be the difference-maker in the end,” he said, after beating No. 8 seed Casper Ruud Sunday. Sure, and Alexander Zverev would likely agree with that assessment, but Fritz’s desire to compartmentalize, as tennis players so often want to do, is revealing.

The last time Fritz said something about believing he could win the U.S. Open, he promptly lost in the first round here. That was in 2022 when a qualifier named Brandon Holt beat him. Holt is best known for being the son of Tracy Austin, a two-time champion a few generations back… and for beating Fritz in the first round at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Zverev has lost two Grand Slam finals and the most scarring defeat came here in New York four years ago. From two sets up against Dominic Thiem, he lost two sets on merit and one on nerves.

Then there’s the needle factor.

Zverev congratulated Fritz for beating him in five sets at Wimbledon a couple of months back, then pointed out that he had played “on one leg.” He also had a dig at Fritz’s box that day and the people in it who were “not from the tennis world”, after an awkwardly elongated exchange at the net.

This match could be a turning point in the careers of both players. In which direction? Wait and see.

Zheng Qinwen (7) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2)

The Zheng Qinwen that Aryna Sabalenka overwhelmed in the Australian Open final in January was not the Zheng Qinwen that Sabalenka will play later today. It took the Belarusian 76 minutes and 17 games to retain the Melbourne title. “As soon as I stepped on the court, I felt like I was in control,” she said.

Sabalenka is in imperious form again now. She has dropped one set out of the last 19 she has played and she is currently hitting her forehand faster than anybody — and we’re talking on the ATP Tour, as well as the WTA version. Novak Djokovic (76 mph), Jannik Sinner (78 mph), and Carlos Alcaraz (79 mph) can’t beat her average speed of 80 mph in the tournament so far.

She is, all things considered, the clearest favorite to win the women’s trophy on Arthur Ashe this coming Saturday.

Zheng will have something for her, though. Her run to Olympic gold last month in Paris, in which she beat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek on a court where the Pole is basically invincible, mixed ferocious serving and explosive forehands, particularly inside-out, diving onto the lines, with tactical dexterity. She can slice. She can flatten out her forehand. She can moonball, when she needs to, lofting the ball into the air to make rallies attritional against players who might blast her off the court but won’t be able to run her off it.

Sabalenka remains the favorite, but this shouldn’t be over in 76 minutes and 17 games.

Grigor Dimitrov (9) vs. Frances Tiafoe (20)

Grigor Dimitrov snuck through the first three rounds in quick time, dropping 24 games, six of those all in one set against Rinky Hijikata. Then came Andrey Rublev.

Dimitrov won the first two sets, as the Russian No. 6 seed suffered some of the self-flagellating fits of anger that have characterized his current season. Then, Rublev decided he wanted to stay in the tournament. He won one set 6-1, then the fourth 6-3. Dimitrov’s mojo was gone. In another part of his career, he might have flamed out, as Rublev had done for much of the match.

This Dimitrov, renascent in the late stages of his career, not so much. He has been one of the tour’s most reliable performers all year and reached the French Open quarterfinals, before being forced to retire with an injury in the last 16 at Wimbledon.

Tiafoe is renascent, too — just in a much shorter timeframe. He roused himself from a slump that began here in 2023, when he lost to Ben Shelton, by taking Carlos Alcaraz to five sets at Wimbledon. Then he reached the final in Cincinnati, losing to Jannik Sinner, before coming to New York for the tournament he prizes above all others.

A five-set comeback from 1-2 down against Shelton to take back his domestic limelight. A gutsy win against Alexei Popyrin after losing his way in the third set. What next? Only he can decide.

Required reading

(Top photo: Emma Navarro; Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images)