Cazeneuve or Bertrand Prime Minister? The RN raises its voice on censorship

While the Elysée is once again consulting the political parties to agree on a name to send to Matignon, the National Rally has already promised to censor those of Bernard Cazeneuve and Xavier Bertrand.

Close the door on Xavier Bertrand, he comes back through the window. The name of the president of Hauts-de-France is once again at the heart of the endless negotiations that are shaking the Elysée, confirmed, this Tuesday, September 3, the entourage of Emmanuel Macron. Still in the running, alongside the socialist and former Prime Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, their case will be the subject of new consultations of the political forces, including the National Rally (RN), during the day.

Raised for several weeks, the hypothesis of the arrival in office of the former minister of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy had gradually been eclipsed, notably in recent hours, in favor of the ephemeral option of Thierry Beaudet, the president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE), the “civil society” card then favored by the Palace.

Bertrand, a new dead end? As “Le Nouvel Obs” reported last week, Marine Le Pen had warned Emmanuel Macron, as early as August 26, that she would censure a government led by the president of Hauts-de-France. A promise nipping in the bud any hope for him to save his head – which the left is already demanding… Jordan Bardella also reminded us of this as soon as the hypothesis of returning to the negotiating table arose: Xavier Bertrand is “outrageous and insulting towards the RN”. And Eric Ciotti, the ally, continued: “He went so far as to call for a communist vote to block the Union of the Right, insulting 11 million voters in the process. It is impossible to place our trust in these years of ambiguity and betrayal.”

Terrible relationships

Several reasons, more or less political, explain the firmness of the RN. Which recalls the modest score of the Republicans, the political family of origin of the president of Hauts-de-France, on July 7: 6.57% of the votes in the first round, for 39 small seats. “Xavier Bertrand has no legitimacy. He carries no weight in his own party, which he has betrayed on several occasions. Who does he represent apart from himself?”was still criticizing Marine Le Pen to some close friends in recent days. Really? This Tuesday morning, the reactivation of the Bertrand track was the subject of more than an hour of discussion by videoconference between the Elysée and the feathered hats of the right (Laurent Wauquiez, Bruno Retailleau and Gérard Larcher) in order to ensure, successfully, that they would not oppose it… More prosaically, other parameters are weighing down the former insurer’s bill after the Le Penists: his execrable relations with Marine Le Pen and the RN, which Xavier Bertrand beat in 2015 and 2021.

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Why then launch into new consultations? Two hypotheses are conceivable this Tuesday afternoon. The first: the Elysée would thus seek to formally acknowledge this new political impasse, as had already been the case at the end of August with Lucie Castets, the candidate of the New Popular Front, who was also condemned to censure. A second, more political, and which some of Marine Le Pen’s lieutenants do not completely rule out: the Palace would finally propose the candidacy of Xavier Bertrand in order to force Marine Le Pen to politically justify her blockage to her voters. And this while Xavier Bertrand can hardly be suspected of wanting to implement a left-wing policy… A pitfall that the extreme right and its leader seek to avoid at all costs: “After having refused the left the right to govern because of a majority rejection, Emmanuel Macron, by political calculation, would impose a Xavier Bertrand also destined for immediate censorship? That would be a real scandal!”already responds the close guard of the deputy of Hénin-Beaumont.

“No, no and no”

Bernard Cazeneuve, still on the starting line, is not much better off. Unloved by the left, the former Prime Minister can still hope to get out of it if he manages to avoid the wrath of the right and to take enough socialist deputies with him. But he will have to give up on RN votes: “We don’t make any special case between Cazeneuve and Bertrand. Concerning them, it’s the same thing, namely: no, no and no.” An intransigence which contrasts with the line of ” responsibility “ hitherto defended by the extreme right and which consisted, with the exception of the NFP, in not ruling out “as a matter of principle and in advance” the contenders for Matignon.

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And now? Also this Tuesday, the RN announced that it “would accept a technical government, which would deal with current affairs” with a mandate “to implement proportional representation in legislative elections” and to organize a new election as early as next June. In this very provisional – and very uncertain – scenario, Thierry Beaudet already seems out of the game. Guilty of statements that were too hostile to the RN, the Frontists have also promised him censure.