(Paris) Three years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the European Commission announced a plan to completely do without Russian gas by the end of 2027, an energy that still represents 9 % of what Europeans consume today, but the path to weaning is sown with pitfalls.
Posted at 1:46 p.m.
Nathalie ALONSO
Agency France-Presse
Why is this gas so important for Europe?
In 2021, before the war in Ukraine, 45 % of imports from the European Gas Gas (gas gas transported by gas pipelines and liquefied gas delivered by ships) came from Russia, then its first supplier, according to EU statistics.
Certainly, Europe has since considerably reduced its dependence on Moscow with the gradual drying up of flows by gas pipelines after the Russian invasion of February 2022 and the cessation of transit via Ukraine at 1is last January. But Russian gas continues to arrive in Europe to heat houses, feed industries or produce electricity.
Even today, Russian gas represents 9 % of what the European Union consumes against 36 % in 2021, before the war in Ukraine, according to estimates by the KPLER cabinet from January to April 2025 transmitted to AFP.
After Norway, Russia remains its 2e Supplier: Last year, Russia represented 18 % of its gas imports per gas pipeline and 20 % of its LNG intake. For this highly prized liquid gas from Europeans, Russia arrives just after the United States (45 % of EU imports).
Since the energy crisis after the post-COVVI-19 resumption in 2021 and even more after the start of the war, Europe has massively turned to LNG, this gas discharged into ports, regasified and then injected into the European gas network: it represented 37 % of imports of gas in the EU in 2024, for 63 % by gas pipelines, according to IEEFA, a specialized reflection center.
Can Europe do without Russia?
Yes, by diversifying even more. However, the LNG market, at the heart of a global competition, is now tense: the offer is restricted while new projects will not be put into service until 2026 or 2027. “By 2028, we should enter a phase of excess LNG offer worldwide”, underlines with AFP Jan-Eric Fähnrich, analyst at Rystad Energy.
So who to turn to? The EU could import even more American LNG, hoping to escape customs taxes from US President Donald Trump, even if the European Commission wants to be able to rely on “a wide range” of countries.
Norway-which is already the first supplier of all the gas delivered to the EU (32 % in 2024), Qatar, North Africa … “We do not want to depend on any country, including the United States,” said European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen to AFP.
“North America and Qatar will massively increase their capacity, but Africa will also go online for Europe, especially if Mozambique manages to appease certain concerns in terms of security,” explains Jan-Eric Fähnrich.
Why is it complicated for the EU?
The European Commission offers two -step action: the prohibition of new contracts and short contracts (spot) existing with Russian companies at the end of 2025, then the extinction of all gas imports from Russia two years later.
For Rystad Energy, one of the challenges will be to see how to “treat existing contracts with Shell, Total, Sefe and Naturgy”, which could raise legal issues.
Unveiled Tuesday, this roadmap will be subject to the Member States and Parliament. Discussions that promise to be sensitive: the European Commission will have to maneuver between the spectrum of a new outbreak of gas prices as in 2022 and divisions within the Member States. Some like Hungary are indeed openly close to Russia.
Hence the idea of the European Commission to opt for a legislative proposal – which requires the qualified majority – rather than sanctions, which would require the unanimity of the 27.
The Commission will also have to manage the increased dependence of certain countries to Russian LNG imports: according to the International Energy Agency, three countries – Belgium, France and Spain – have welcomed 85 % of total Russian LNG imports, part of which to be re -exported to the continent.
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