As Midi Libre reports, this controversial practice, which dates back to the 16the century, had been prohibited in 1591 by pope Grégoire XIV, before being reautical in 1918. Today, she attracted an international audience eager for forecasts.
Parolin and Tagle at the top of the predictions
According to data compiled by Oddschecker, the Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin arrived at the top with an average rating of 2.25. A bet of one euro could thus bring in 2.25 euros in the event of a parolin election.
Behind him, the Philippin Luis Antonio Tagle is essential with a rating of 3.1. Other favorites include Peter Turkson (6,5), Matteo Zuppi (6,1) et Pierbatte pizzaballa (6,9).
new Pope: a French among the favorites
Who will be the next pope? Two weeks after Pope Francis’ death, speculation is rudder and forecasts emerge all over the planet. Although the election still reserves surprises, some candidacies seem to detach themselves. This is particularly that of the Archbishop of Marseille, Jean-Marc Aveline, new face of the Church of France.
French Jean-Marc AvelineArchbishop of Marseille, also appears in the top 10 with an average rating of 22.8. However, experts temperate this enthusiasm: these forecasts do not always reflect the internal realities of the Vatican.
AFP/Archives
Paris, a historical “sin”?
Historically, betting on the future Pope is nothing new. As Midi Libre reminds us, the first documented bets date from the 16th century. Quickly condemned by the Church, they had been struck by excommunication by Pope Grégoire XIV. The ban will ultimately be lifted in 1918, and no legal framework governs this type of bet today.
“These forecasts do not always reflect the internal realities of the Vatican”.
Platforms like Polymarket have even made these bets a real marketing argument, transforming forecasts on the conclave into media events.
A niche market, but a definite craze
AFP
“Building on the next Pope is certainly a niche market, but it arouses international interest,” said Lee Phelps, spokesperson for William Hill, to the Canadian newspaper La Presse.
The writing advises you
Indeed, despite the total uncertainty that hangs over the choice of the Holy See, hundreds of thousands of curious people invite each year on the online Paris sites to scrutinize the odds and try to guess the next Successor of Pierre.
It remains to be seen whether bookmakers will be more insightful than experts this year. As a reminder, during the resignation of Benoît XVI, Pope Francis did not appear among the favorites …
