The population of Switzerland will drop from 9.0 million inhabitants to the end of 2024 to some 10.5 million in 2055. According to figures from the “reference scenario” of the Federal Statistics Office (OFS) published this Tuesday, this increase will be mainly due to migration. However, its magnitude “will depend on the evolution of socio-economic and political contexts of Switzerland”.
Recall that an initiative filed by the UDC requests that Switzerland does not exceed 10 million residents before 2050. According to the reference scenario of the OFS, this overlap of 10 million would already be reached in 2040 with an average annual increase in the population of 0.5%.
As shown in the diagram below, the populations of the cantons of Lucerne, Saint-Gall, Vaud, Geneva, Thurgovia and Argovie will increase by more than 20%. The Swiss average will be around 16%. Conversely, the cantons of Jura, Neuchâtel, Schaffhouse or Appenzell Rhodes-Exterior will experience the lowest growth.
According to the OFS, from 2035, the growth of the population will come “exclusively from migration”, because the natural increase in the population, the difference between the number of births and deaths, will be negative from this date: “Demographic growth will thus depend more and more on the economic situation in Switzerland, which is the main engine of immigration”, notes the OFS.
Two other demographic visions exist next to the reference scenario. The first provides 11.7 million inhabitants in 2055, if the parameters of migration, fertility and life expectancy increase faster than expected. Otherwise, there could be only 9.3 million in 2055. In this scenario, the population will reach its highest value in 2042 and will then start to fall.
Over the next few years, baby boom generations will gradually enter the third age: “People aged 65 or over today have the total population. They will represent around 25% in 30 years ”.
According to the reference scenario, the increase in the population aged 65 or over will be rapid until around 2040, with maximum annual growth of 2.6% in 2029.
The aging of the population will result in a higher proportion of the number of people retired from the active population. In 2024, the OFS had 38 people aged 65 and over for 100 active people. According to the three basic scenarios, this figure will increase to more than 50 people by 2055. 51 according to the reference scenario, 50 according to the “high” scenario and 52 according to the “low” scenario.
