A growing population, despite a negative relationship between the number of births and deaths. This is the face that Switzerland will take in the coming decades, according to the scenario deemed the most realistic established by the Federal Statistics Office (FSA). The institution has indeed published, Tuesday, a report on the various prospects of demographic evolution by 2055. In figures, in broad outline, we must expect to reach 10 million inhabitants, against 9 million today, in the course of the 2040s. The 10.5 million mark will be crossed in 2055, according to projections.
These estimates place the average annual increase at 0.5%. And to reach such a figure, it is not so much the birth rate that will make the weight. “Indeed, natural increase, the difference between the number of births and deaths, will be negative from 2035,” explains the OFS. Consequently, growth will come “exclusively from migration”. Note that this probable development of demography will not spare the pensions of the Swiss. Against 38 currently, in 2055 there are more than 50 people aged 65 or over per 100 active people among 20 and 64 years old.
A future with variable geometry
In parallel to the reference scenario, two others were calculated. The first, where we count on a migration, a fertility rate and higher life expectancy, led the OFS to estimate the number of Swiss residents in 2055. The “low” scenario brought this figure to 9.3 million. The economic situation in Switzerland, “the main engine of immigration”, will play an important role in a possible rapprochement towards one or the other of these scenarios.
But then, where will all these beautiful people live? “Around large agglomerations,” replies the OFS. The cantons of Lucerne, Saint-Gall, Vaud and Geneva will be the first concerned, with population increases of more than 22%by 2055. In other French-speaking, Valais should experience an increase of 19.8%, while that of Friborg (+15.7%) will be just below the Swiss average (+16%). Neuchâtel (+0.5%) and the Jura (+0.3%), for their part, are the two cantons where the increase will be the least important.
