a exchange risk that can impact your margins [ABO]

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The US dollar is currently showing signs of weakness, but this trend does not apply uniformly to all global currencies.

In Asia, a real exchange war is underway, And it is precisely the greenback that comes out reinforced.

Last week, The Vietnamese Dong has reached a historic low in front of the dollar, which could push local authorities to intervene on the foreign exchange market. Other currencies in the region, such as Indian roupeencounter similar difficulties.

This confirms that The dollar retains its status of refuge in the face of emerging currencies.

On the other hand, Faced with large currencies like the Euro, the Sterling book or the Swiss franc, the dollar is clearly disputed.

The Swiss currency Recently appreciated up to 0.80 CHF per USD, a level that complicates the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (BNS). The market now anticipates an increase in the key rate at 0% from June, with a possibility of returning to negative territory – a scenario that Switzerland has already experienced between 2014 and 2022.

This anticipation is also reflected in the bond market, where short -term rates of Swiss sovereign obligations have passed in negative zone. An anomaly, of course, but which illustrates the originality of the current economic context.

To this is added The force of the Swiss francwhich represents a challenge for exporters of the country, already penalized by reciprocal customs duties of 31% imposed by the Trump administration, which weighs heavily on their margins.

At the same time, major institutional investors – banks, insurance companies, hedge funds – continue to reduce their exposure to assets denominated in dollars.

According to the latest CFTC data (the US regulator of the term markets), the dollar index is currently the subject of unprecedented selling pressure since the COVID crisis in 2020. Usually, an excess of sales precedes a technical rebound, but prudence remains in this very uncertain context.

Rumors circulate even in the market rooms on a possible will of the White House of Proceed to a devaluation of the dollar this summer – A season historically conducive to monetary upheavals. Difficult to say if these market noises are founded, but they push many players to further cover their exhibitions to the dollar.

If you are exposed to the United States, it is strongly advised to review your coverage strategy.

A moderate drop in the dollar, around 8 to 10%, could still be absorbed, although painfully. On the other hand, a brutal devaluation of 15 to 20%, as some members of the Trump administration evoke it, could have major consequences for your activity.

In our eyes, The exchange risk linked to the dollar is today one of the main economic threats to be monitored.