An IFOP survey in which Jordan Bardella is tested as a presidential candidate and whose sponsor is funded by a conservative billionaire … It was not necessary to see a desire for destabilization, a sign of the feverishness since the judgment which prevents Marine Le Pen from 2027. microcosm by asserting on Europe1/CNews to have “had to intervene on an attempt not to test Marine Le Pen in a survey, to create controversies and weaken the national camp which is winning.”
The story starts on April 27 when hexagon, which presents itself as an observatory wanting to put “France in figures”, announces on x “A large exclusive survey of voting intentions for the presidential election, 10,000 respondents interviewed, second rounds …”. With to accompany this teasing the photo of 14 political leaders including Jordan Bardella but not Marine Le Pen. “As Marine Le Pen was declared ineligible (Editor’s note: by the judgment of the Paris Criminal Court on March 31, which she appealed)we had the idea of testing Jordan Bardella “explains to AFP Paul Cebille, one of the three members of France.
A conservative revolution by a “Union of the lines”
“We were more interested in the sociology of electorates (depending on age, religious convictions, sexual orientation, etc.), which the size of the sample allows, than by the race for small horses”he says, defending himself from any desire to erase Marine Le Pen.
This was not perceived as such by Mr. Tanguy who sees behind this survey the hand of billionaire Pierre-Edouard Sterin. Less known than Vincent Bolloré, this Catholic who made a fortune with the Smartbox, also campaigned for a conservative revolution by a “Union of lines”.
While acknowledging being funded by Mr. Sterin, hexagon ensures that he is not part of his pericles project, acronym of “resistant rooted patriots Christian identity European sovereignist”, intended to wear “The cultural battle” right.
-“Our objective is to make thematic files by confronting the opinion of the French with statistics”, explains Mr. Cebille even if he recognizes “editorial” choices. In fact, on the site, the themes are rather conservative (indiscipline in school, increase in baptisms, lack of places in prison …
In an emergency, hexagon asks the Ifop to test the candidacy of Marine Le Pen
According to the reactions from the RN on April 27, “We understood that it was going to pose problems”explains Mr. Cebille. In an emergency, hexagon asks the Ifop to test the candidacy of Marine Le Pen, which is done on a smaller sample of 2,000 people. “This raises major questions of methodology”judge the deputy LFI Antoine Léaument, rapporteur at the assembly of the commission of inquiry into the organization of the elections. This commission will also audition the director general of Ifop Frédéric Dabi on Wednesday, then Mr. Sterin next week.
Methodologically, “Between 10,000 and 2,000 people, it does not fundamentally change reliability”defends Mr. Cebille, himself ancient of Ifop. Asked by AFP, Mr. Dabi confirms that he received at the end of April “A hexagon request to make a complement with Marine Le Pen” And refers to it to know the reasons. “It is not my business. It is not very common but it can happen to us that a sponsor completes an investigation by a B or C section”he said.
“The strength of the RN is the alternative, that the candidate is Bardella or Le Pen”
In the end, the results of the survey show that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella would obtain significantly the same score in the 1st round (between 32 and 35% depending on the configurations) and would deliver a tight duel with Edouard Philippe in the second round with a slight advantage for Jordan Bardella (50/50 with Bardella against 48/52 with Marine Le Pen). “The strength of the RN is the alternative, that the candidate is Bardella or Le Pen. (…) There is for the moment a form of indifference” To internal tensions that appeared in recent days between the two party leaders on the candidate’s question for 2027, judges Mr. Dabi.
